Arlington Municipal Airport Development Plan Arlington Airport Development Plan | Page 58
NATIONAL AVIATION TRENDS AND FORECASTS
The forecasts developed for the airport must consider national, regional, and local aviation trends. The
following section describes trends in aviation. This information is utilized both in statistical analysis
and to aid the forecast preparer in making any manual adjustments to the forecasts as necessary. The
national aviation forecast information is primarily sourced from the FAA Aerospace Forecasts – Fiscal
Years 2014‐2034, published in March 2014.
NATIONAL TRENDS
The aviation industry in the United States has experienced an event‐filled period since the beginning of
the 21 st century. The industry has faced impacts of the events of September 11, 2001, scares from
pandemics such as SARS, the bankruptcy of five network air carriers, all‐time high fuel prices, and a se‐
rious economic downturn with global ramifications. The
The aviation industry in the Unit‐
Bureau of Economic Research has determined that the
worst economic recession in the post‐World War II era
ed States has experienced an
began in December 2007 and lasted until mid‐2009. Eight
event‐filled period since the be‐
of the world’s top 10 economies were in recession by Jan‐
ginning of the 21 st century.
uary 2009.
Since the official end of the recession, the overall U.S. economy has been slow to recover; however,
aviation is anticipated to continue to grow over the long run. According to the FAA’s annual forecast,
“fundamentally, demand for aviation is driven by economic activity. As economic growth picks up, so
will growth in aviation demand.”
The 2014 FAA forecast calls for U.S. air carrier passenger growth over the next 20 years to average 2.2
percent annually. After another year of slow growth in 2014, growth over the following five years is
projected to be higher than the long‐term growth rate as the economy accelerates.
System capacity as measured in available seat miles (ASMs), the overall yardstick for aviation activity, is
projected to increase by 2.7 percent annually through the long term. Passenger enplanements (board‐
ings) are projected to increase at an average annual rate of 1.9 percent through the 20‐year FAA fore‐
cast period.
The long‐term outlook for general aviation is favorable, according to FAA forecasts. While business
aviation slowed significantly in the aftermath of the 2008‐2009 recession, growth is expected, especial‐
ly in both operations and manufacturing of turbine‐powered aircraft. Total piston‐powered aircraft in
the U.S. general aviation fleet are projected to decline by 0.3 percent annually through 2034. Total
turbine powered aircraft are projected to grow by 2.6 percent through 2034. The FAA projections are
discussed further in the subsections that follow.
Chapter Two - 3