Arlington Municipal Airport Development Plan Arlington Airport Development Plan | Page 57
4) Select Forecast Methods: There are several appropriate mathematical and logical methodologies
and techniques available, including regression analysis, trend analysis, market share or ratio analy‐
sis, exponential smoothing, econometric modeling, comparison with other airports, survey tech‐
niques, cohort analysis, choice and distribution models, range projections, and professional judg‐
ment.
5) Apply Forecast Methods and Evaluate Results: Prepare the actual forecasts and evaluate for rea‐
sonableness.
6) Summarize and Document Results: Provide supporting text and tables as necessary.
7) Compare Forecast Results with FAA’s Terminal Area Forecast: Follow guidance in FAA Order
5090.3C, Field Formulation of the National Plan of Integrated Airport Systems. In part, the Order
indicates that forecasts should not vary significantly (more than 10 percent) from the TAF. When
there is a greater than 10 percent variation, supporting documentation should be supplied to the
FAA.
Only two components of this Development Plan are actually approved: the aviation demand forecasts
and the Airport Layout Plan (ALP) drawing set. In the State of Texas, the approval of aviation demand
forecasts has been granted to the Texas Department of Transportation – Aviation Division (TxDOT).
The ALP drawing set, which will be updated later in this study, will be coordinated with TxDOT as well
as the FAA for ultimate approval.
The demand‐based manner in which this Develop‐
The demand‐based manner in which
ment Plan is being prepared is intended to accom‐
this Development Plan is being pre‐
modate variations in demand which can be caused
pared is intended to accommodate
by many factors, including changes in the aviation
variations in demand which can be
industry, as well as the economy in general. De‐
mand‐based planning relates capital improvements
caused by many factors, including
to specific demand factors, such as based aircraft,
changes in the aviation industry, as
instead of points in time. This allows Arlington Mu‐
well as the economy in general.
nicipal Airport to address capital improvement
needs according to actual demand that is occurring.
Therefore, should growth in based aircraft or aircraft operations slow or decline, it may not be neces‐
sary to implement some of improvement projects. However, should the Airport experience accelerat‐
ed growth, the plan will be flexible to allow for expedited development opportunities.
In order to fully assess current and future aviation demand for Arlington Municipal Airport, an exami‐
nation of several influencing factors is needed. Relevant factors include national and regional aviation
trends, historical and forecast socioeconomic and demographic information of the area, and compet‐
ing transportation modes and facilities. Consideration and analysis of these factors will ensure a com‐
prehensive outlook for future aviation demand at Arlington Municipal Airport.
Chapter Two - 2