Arlington Municipal Airport Development Plan Arlington Airport Development Plan | Page 56

Chapter Two
AVIATION DEMAND FORECASTS
An important factor in facility planning begins with defining the expected needs of an airport over the
specified planning period. For the Arlington Municipal Airport Development Plan, this involves
projec ng poten al avia on ac vity for a 10-year meframe. Forecasts of based aircra and annual
opera ons (takeoffs and landings) will serve as the basis for facility planning and needs of the Airport
through the year 2024.
The objec ve of forecas ng is to predict the magnitude of change expected over the next decade.
Avia on ac vity can be affected by many influences on the local, regional, and na onal levels, making it
virtually impossible to predict year-to-year fluctua ons of ac vity over 10 years with any certainty.
Therefore, it is important to remember that forecasts serve as guidelines, and planning must remain
flexible enough to respond to a range of unforeseen developments.
Federal Avia on Administra on (FAA) Advisory Circular (AC) 150/5070-6b, Airport Master Plans, outlines
seven standard steps involved in the forecast process, including:
1) IdenƟfy AviaƟon AcƟvity Measures: The level and type of avia on ac vi es likely to impact facility
needs. For general avia on, this typically includes based aircra and opera ons.
2) Review Previous Airport Forecasts: May include the FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF), state or
regional system plans, and previous Master/Development Plans.
3) Gather Data: Determine what data is required to prepare the forecasts, iden fy data sources, and
collect historical and forecast data.
Chapter Two - 1