«...Most of Obama’s policies
are a function of US domestic
politics and his desire, in
particular, to avoid getting
caught up in Middle East
»
conflicts...
Interview
Daniel Brumberg
Associate professor at Georgetown University and US Institue for
Peace special advisor for Iran and North Africa
Does the United States have a new « Arab policy »?
I do not think that the Obama administration has a new «Arab policy».
I would say that US policy towards the region doesn’t follow a coherent or
cogent plan. Most of Obama’s policies are a function of US domestic politics and his desire, in particular, to avoid getting caught up in Middle East
conflicts (Syria, for example).
With the US-Iran agreement, are we witnessing a major
reshuffling of the “geopolitical cards” in the region?
It’s too early to tell. Much will depend on whether the agreement opens
up domestic space in Iran for pragmatic forces to pursue a different and
less confrontational policy, especially on Syria and on the Palestinian issue.
Zarif’s room for manoeuver is still limited. That said, the agreement for
Iran to participate in the upcoming Vienna conference on Iran is possibly
encouraging.If Iranian pragmatists could find a way of supporting some
kind of reasonable solution to Syria...this would suggest an opening of the
foreign policy arena...but their room is still limited,
The next US presidential elections will be organized soon. Is
it possible that a new administration modifies substantially
the current policy in the region? In your opinion, what would
change if the Republicans win the elections?
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The essential critique of the Republicans is that
Obama has been weak, indecisive and too unwilling to use force or threaten its use. The question is
whether a Republican president, or perhaps even
Hillary Clinton, would change this approach and
demonstrate a readiness to use force or confront
radical Islamist forces in the region in a manner
that would signal a departure from Obama. I am
not convinced that this would be the case given the
costs associated with a «tougher» policy. There
would certainly be a lot of soul searching in any
new administration, but would this lead to a strategic change...I doubt it. Same on Iran. If the US and
Iran are reasonably certain that the basic elements
of the agreement are being upheld, even the most
die hard Iran skeptics in a new administration
will learn to live with the Iran agreement, while
avoiding any major opening to Iran, of course!
With the increase of terrorism threats
and the different conflicts in the region, is
the US going to focus more on security than
on democracy? What will be the consequences in the region?
Yes we have already seen a shift from a focus on
democracy to security, the fight against t \