The Big Picture
While the U.S. labor market has
been slow in recouping all massive job
losses during the Great Recession of 20072009, overall economic activity nationwide
has recently revved up at a pace faster
than most forecasts. For the last four official releases, the growth rate of U.S. GDP
more than doubled that of the previous
quarter. Gross domestic product—the
total output of goods and services—is
the broadest measure of the size of an
economy.
U.S. GDP Growth,
Annualized Quarterly % Change
U.S. GDP Growth, Annualized Quarterly % Change
6%
The latest GDP figures underscore the
strength of the U.S. economy. For the
future course of the economy, leading
economic indicators can provide hints.
Those indicators are made up of such factors as stock prices, manufacturing activity
and building permits, which often change
before the overall economy changes. As
such, leading indicators offer foresight into
where the economy is headed in the near
future. The readings for both Texas and
the U.S. since mid-2012 point to continued
improvement in the overall economic
environment.
Leading Economic Indicators
4%
Leading Economic Indicators
2%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
One of the leading economic indicators is the overall value of stock prices. The
S&P 500 index, a common measure of U.S.
stock prices, has continued to appreciate
after surpassing its previous peak reached
before the onset of the 2008 financial crisis. As financial capital flows fre