TALKING POINT
Ukraine War : Chaos Theory ’ s Butterfly Effect
By Boniface Ngahu
In our predictions for the last decade around 2010 we talked about the world getting into the teenage years indicating likelihood to be characterized by dramatic and surprising changes , by the end of the decade that prediction had come to be . We are in the twenties and the drama seems to be continuing , the world was normalizing from the pandemic and within no time Russian staged the war in Ukraine which some people referred to as World War III . The Russian War in Ukraine presents us an opportunity to explore the chaos theory and butterfly effect
Chaos Theory and The Paradox of Connectedness of Incompatible Systems
The Chaos Theory is based on the observation within the randomness of complex chaotic systems , there are underlying patterns , interconnectedness , constant feedback loops , repetition , self-similarity , fractals ( similar patterns recur at progressively smaller scales describing partly random and chaotic phenomena ), and self-organization . This means that chaos usually gets their own life , keep being reinvented into many forms and people organize themselves accordingly . Scientifically , it talks about the paradox of unpredictable behavior where two incompatible systems get surprisingly connected . For example , based on population dynamics , sustained electricity black outs have been observed to increase birthrates within a year .
Butterfly Effect and the Viral Effects of Small Changes
This is related to the Chaos Theory but is based on small changes on initial conditions causing largescale changes later . In other words , a metaphor is used about a butterfly in Tokyo flapping its wings causing a tornado in Toronto . The sensitive dependence on initial condition is demonstrated by the butterfly ’ s action . It was mathematician and meteorologist Edward Lorenz ’ s who was the first to use this term after researching a tornado : from the time of its formation the path it takes is influenced by small changes like a distant butterfly flapping its wings several weeks earlier .
Wangari Mathai used to talk about a humming bird that was trying to put off a forest fire by fetching water from the river with its beak as other animals watched , that bird seemed to understand the Butterfly effect because it was doing something
“ Banning of Russian oil and gas has triggered an emergency in execution of green energy projects . This will involve wind including off-shore and solar projects . Nuclear is also considered green and many countries might scale up their investments in this as well .“ about the fire as others watched . In these days of internet , the humming bird would have broken the internet by going viral in similar way Githeri man got famous for queuing to vote in the general elections as he munched his githeri ( a Kenyan local delicacy made of maize and beans ).
Misinformation War
The war of misinformation has played excellently which reminds of the German chief propagandist and minister for mis-information during World War II Joseph Goebbels . Though many thought that the US warnings were part of disinformation , Europe feared that Putin would go to war and he did . The Russian control of information about the war saw them threaten penalizing Wikipedia heavily if they didn ’ t pull down disapproved content . It is hard to tell the truth from the lies given that there is also reporting by netizens . The speed at which things happen has been supersonic and it is also quite difficult to catch up as one separates truths from lies and everything in between . The Russian say they are liberating the Ukrainians who are escaping the country in millions at rate of over 100,000 per week which contradicts the liberation claim . It seems that the aim of the war was to stop Ukraine from Joining NATO , the joint armed force among tens of countries , but some analysts see empire building as a key objective .
The Russian War in Ukraine has affected Tourism Prospects in Kenya
Apparently due to the war in Ukraine chartered planes that used to fly to Mombasa from Ukraine
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