Analytics Magazine Analytics Magazine, May/June 2014 | Page 72

PR ED IC TIVE A N A LY T I C S Most swans are white: Living in a predictive society My view – and Siegel’s, I would guess – is that this predictive activity has generally been good for humankind. In the context of healthcare, crime and terrorism, it can save lives. In the context of advertising, using predictions is more efficient … In politics, it seems to reward those candidates who respect the scientific method. BY THOMAS H. DAVENPORT 62 | Eric Siegel’s book – “Predictive Analytics: The Power to Predict Who Will Click, Buy, Lie, or Die”– deals with quantitative efforts to predict human behavior. One of the earliest efforts to do that was in World War II. Norbert Wiener, the fat