Retrospective Time Series Analysis of Dengue Fever Incidence and Death Case in Relation to Climate and Weather between January 2012 until May 2016 at Sampang Regency, East Java, Indonesia Julius Albert Sugianto *, Michael Jonatan **
* Universitas Airlangga –(+ 62) 89675844351; julius _ albert14 @ yahoo. com ** Universitas Airlangga –(+ 62) 82141612191; michaeljonatan1996 @ gmail. com
Background
Dengue infection remained the most common arbo-viral infection worldwide. Dengue fever( DF) outbreaks in Indonesia is the largest in ASEAN. The increment were thought to be an indirect effect of high mobility, climate change, and population density. On climate change, three parameters are found to primarily affect rise in DF incidence: temperature, humidity, and rainfall. Increase of those parameters makes the environment more suitable for Aedes mosquitoes to reproduce and thus, increases its population and, consequently, DF incidence.
Sampang is one of the region which have been consistently hit by an epidemic of Dengue despite the strategies that have been implemented to prevent and eradicate DF in Sampang. Temperature in Sampang is consistent all year round at 27.1 o C. Rain precipitation fluctuates, peaking at December and hitting the bottom on August. Aim
With the available evidence of the correlation of temperature, humidity, and rainfall to dengue fever incidence and the evidence in variation of climate change in Sampang. We sought to analyze the relationship of dengue fever incidence and death case towards climate change, especially on rainfall and temperature at Sampang Regency, Madura, East Java, Indonesia. Material and methods
Retrospective observational study was conducted. We collected data from all government health facilities in Sampang regency( 21 community health centers and 1 government hospital) from January 2012 to May 2016. These data were collected per months and two specific parameters were investigated:( 1) DF incidence and( 2) death case. We then analyzed the data descriptively and further compare it with the available climate data of Sampang from id. climate-data. org, Statistics Indonesia, and Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics. Results
DF incidence monthly cumulative pattern of Sampang followed the monthly rain precipitation pattern with a month delay. DF incidences reached the highest level on January, a month after the rain precipitation peaked on December. Meanwhile, monthly death cases also peaked on January except on 2015. Yearly, DF incidence remained on the rise except on 2014. Additionally, from analyzing the DF