Retrospective Time Series Analysis of Dengue Fever Incidence and Death Case in Relation to Climate and Weather between January 2012 until May 2016 at Sampang Regency , East Java , Indonesia Julius Albert Sugianto *, Michael Jonatan **
* Universitas Airlangga – (+ 62 ) 89675844351 ; julius _ albert14 @ yahoo . com ** Universitas Airlangga – (+ 62 ) 82141612191 ; michaeljonatan1996 @ gmail . com
Background
Dengue infection remained the most common arbo-viral infection worldwide . Dengue fever ( DF ) outbreaks in Indonesia is the largest in ASEAN . The increment were thought to be an indirect effect of high mobility , climate change , and population density . On climate change , three parameters are found to primarily affect rise in DF incidence : temperature , humidity , and rainfall . Increase of those parameters makes the environment more suitable for Aedes mosquitoes to reproduce and thus , increases its population and , consequently , DF incidence .
Sampang is one of the region which have been consistently hit by an epidemic of Dengue despite the strategies that have been implemented to prevent and eradicate DF in Sampang . Temperature in Sampang is consistent all year round at 27.1 o C . Rain precipitation fluctuates , peaking at December and hitting the bottom on August . Aim
With the available evidence of the correlation of temperature , humidity , and rainfall to dengue fever incidence and the evidence in variation of climate change in Sampang . We sought to analyze the relationship of dengue fever incidence and death case towards climate change , especially on rainfall and temperature at Sampang Regency , Madura , East Java , Indonesia . Material and methods
Retrospective observational study was conducted . We collected data from all government health facilities in Sampang regency ( 21 community health centers and 1 government hospital ) from January 2012 to May 2016 . These data were collected per months and two specific parameters were investigated : ( 1 ) DF incidence and ( 2 ) death case . We then analyzed the data descriptively and further compare it with the available climate data of Sampang from id . climate-data . org , Statistics Indonesia , and Indonesian Agency for Meteorology , Climatology , and Geophysics . Results
DF incidence monthly cumulative pattern of Sampang followed the monthly rain precipitation pattern with a month delay . DF incidences reached the highest level on January , a month after the rain precipitation peaked on December . Meanwhile , monthly death cases also peaked on January except on 2015 . Yearly , DF incidence remained on the rise except on 2014 . Additionally , from analyzing the DF