Retrospective Time Series Analysis of Dengue Fever Incidence and Death Rate in Relation to Climate and Weather between January 2012 until May 2016 at Sampang Regency, East Java, Indonesia Julius Albert Sugianto *, Michael Jonatan **
* Universitas Airlangga –(+ 62) 89675844351; julius _ albert14 @ yahoo. com ** Universitas Airlangga –(+ 62) 82141612191; michaeljonatan1996 @ gmail. com
Background
Dengue fever( DF) is one of the most important disease worldwide and especially Indonesia. Temperature, humidity, and rainfall increase has been proven to increase DF incidence because it creates a suitable environment for Aedes mosquitoes, the main vector of Dengue Virus, to reproduce. Sampang is one of the region in Indonesia which have been consistently hit by Dengue epidemic. Aim
We sought to analyze the relationship of DF incidence and death rate towards rainfall and temperature at Sampang Regency, Madura, East Java, Indonesia. Material and methods
Retrospective observational study was conducted. DF incidence and death rate were collected from all government health facilities in Sampang from January 2012 to May 2016. The data acquired were analyzed descriptively and compared with the available climate data from Statistics Indonesia and Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics. Results
DF incidence’ s monthly cumulative pattern is similar to monthly rain precipitation pattern with one month of delay. Rainfall precipitation peaked on December, followed by DF incidence’ s peak on January, and death rate on February. Yearly, DF incidence keeps increasing except on 2014. Additionally, each year’ s( 2012-2016) monthly pattern showed that the monthly pattern on each year remained the same despite changes in cumulative yearly incidence. Conclusion
The result of our study provides evidence on the relationship between weather and climate in relation to DF incidence and death rate in Sampang. We hope this result can be used as a role model for further research and nationwide strategies in combating dengue fever.