American Motorcycle Dealer AMD 234 January 2019 | Page 6

HARLEY-DAVIDSON STOCK PRICE
LONG-TERM: JUNE 2006 TO DECEMBER 2018
70
APR '14
$73.94
NOV '06
$74.65
DEC'14
$68.78
SEPT '13
$62.15
60
31 AUG ’16
$53.00
MY2017 M-8 TOURERS
JUN'15
$56.35
50
DEC'15
$45.00
40
Following
"Project Rushmore"
MY2014 launch
30
31 AUG’ 17
$47.51
MY2018 M-8 SOFTAILS
20
Harley’s share price has only once threatened to get back to the
levels seen before the financial crisis. Since 2014, investor sentiment
has been mostly negative despite healthy dividends.
MAR '09
$8.20
10
0
<<< Continued from cover
Many analysts are now pointing to the
late January 2019 full year fiscals
announcement for 2018 as being a
potential watershed moment for the
stock market’s patience.
As regularly repeated, mantra-like, by
‘Harley is faced
with a triple
whammy of
pressure’
through 2022” - when the new models
forecast in its ‘More Roads’ strategy
document should start to boost
revenue and eventually profits, rather
than drain capital.
Harley remains adamant that its ‘More
Roads’ initiatives will be self-funded by
continuing to “drive revenue growth”
in the meantime and simultaneously
“expand operating margins”.
Harley’s third quarter EPS (Earnings Per
Share – total dividends arising from net
HARLEY-DAVIDSON STOCK PRICE
JANUARY - DECEMBER 2018
31 JANUARY
$51.11
2018 FULL YEAR FISCALS
$55
31 MARCH
$42.88
CEO MATT LEVATICH
OPEN LETTER TO INVESTORS
$50
31 AUGUST
$42.75
31 JULY
MY2019 ANNOUNCED
$44.50
‘MORE ROADS’
STRATEGY ANNOUNCEMENT
$45
$40
2018 has been brutal - even “More Roads” has failed to impress investors.
H-D Market Share 2008-2017
2008
2009
2010
$35
both CEO Matt Levatich and CFO John
Olin, one of the key pillars of Harley’s
strategic planning is to keep its current
“investment and return profile and
capital allocation strategy intact
Q3 2018 marked the seventh straight quarter, and 14th out of the last
15 quarters, that Harley’s domestic sales of motorcycles fell.
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
United States (601+cc)
Total Market New Registrations 526,000 325,500 278,500 289,900 299,400 305,900 313,627 328,800 311,710 288,802
H-D Retail Sales 218,939 162,385 143,391 150,900 161,300 167,800 171,079 168,240 161,658 147,972
United States H-D
percentage Market Share 41.6% 49.9% 51.5% 52.1% 53.9% 54.9% 54.5% 51.2% 51.9% 51.2%
EMEA (601+ cc)
Total Market New Registrations 459,400 368,000 344,800 328,500 300,400 281,800 319,801 351,700 391,936 390,619
H-D Retail Sales 40,725 36,444 37,378 39,900 36,200 36,100 38,491 43,287 45,838 44,935
European H-D
percentage market share 8.9% 9.9% 10.8% 12.1% 12.1% 12.8% 12.0% 12.3% 11.7% 11.5%
USA 69.78 66.93 64.56 64.49 64.71 64.74 63.84 63.58 62.11 60.95
EMEA 14.36 16.49 18.54 18.85 17.22 16.34 16.91 16.36 17.61 18.51
Total International 30.22 33.07 35.44 35.51 35.29 35.26 36.16 36.42 37.89 39.05
Percentage of H-D retail sales:
6
AMERICAN MOTORCYCLE DEALER - JANUARY 2019
www.AMDchampionship.com