American Motorcycle Dealer AMD 234 January 2019

NOW IN OUR ™ 27 EA th R Y T H E L E A D I N G B U S I N E S S M A G A Z I N E F O R T H E I N T E R N AT I O N A L C U S T O M M O T O R C Y C L E A N D PA RT S I N D U S T RY Harley Share Price Hits Seven Year Low; Nearly 40% of Market Value Lost in 2018, Market Cap Below $6bn he recent instability on Wall Street hasn’t helped H a rley- Davidson’s cause. The volatility seen in its share price since the start of October has seen the company looking at starting 2019 with its share price in the mid to upper $30.00 range from a 2018 high of $56.50. This represents a loss in its Market Value of around -17 percent in less than three months and nearly 40 percent in less than a year (the 2018 high was $56.50 in January). A year that has seen Harley- Davidson break cover on the most detailed and ambitious long-term strategic plan any motorcycle manufacturer has ever disclosed to its investors. A year in which Harley continues to maintain shareholder dividend growth and a dividend rate that has seen it comfortably outperform the S&P 500 investor return average for several consecutive years. At the time of writing, the Harley share price had plummeted as low as to $34.79, a seven year low. By mid- December 2018 Harley’s Market T Capitalization (“Market Cap” – the real measure of the value of a publicly traded business) had been dragged down to a low of $5.69bn, a drop of over $4.6bn (nearly -45 percent) since its March 2017 two-year high of 10.32bn; it has more than halved with a loss of nearly -60 percent (-$8.31bn) since its April 2014 five-year high of $ ? 2019 over $14bn. Its all-time Market Cap high came in November 2006, before the financial crisis started to erode all stock price values, at $15.34bn, when its share price was trading at close to $74.00; the highest its share price has been since then was around $70.70 in May 2014. Harley’s share price dropped to below $8.50 in March 2009, the recessionary low-point for most of the shares of the then listed corporations who are currently still in the S&P 500; at that time Harley’s Market Cap dipped as low as $1.62bn. There is no question that the volatility seen on Wall Street since the start of October, as markets appear to lurch unsteadily between Bear and Bull, has been a major factor in the instability of Harley-Davidson’s own market fortunes. But it is far from being the only factor. Harley-Davidson has been more exposed than many to the wider economic and geo-political concerns that are also creating an environment of unease and uncertainty – tariffs especially. In the course of 2018 successive short- term Harley share price rallies have proven to be just exactly that, short- term. Quarterly shipment/retail numbers have overshadowed the EPS news, and the ‘More Roads’ strategic plan, and then later in the year, the MY2019 announcement also failed to move Harley’s needle in any meaningful sense. Continues on page 6 >>> ‘SPEEDSTER KING’ Widely admired for it 'swoopy' 1930s retro meets science fiction, gallery grade avant-garde stying, Orkonyi Károly (Hungary) pulled third place in the 2018 'AMD' - making it three out of the top four for Eastern and Central European custom builds! See pages 32/33 JAN 2019 ISSUE #234 2018 HOW WAS IT FOR YOU? J&P CYCLES ULTIMATE BUILDER IMS NEW YORK MOTO BEACH CLASSIC