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Latest AMD/Baird dealer
survey shows domestic US
sales decline continuing
HE results of the latest
AMD/Baird quarterly
Harley-Davidson
authorized dealer
survey shows a
continuing issue for Harley in
terms of domestic sales.
Their 2014 annual results
released in January showed that by
the final quarter of the year their
domestic US sales of new models
had gone into reverse, and that
trend is showing up in the
responses to the February
AMD/Baird survey.
Indeed, the keyword there is
"trend" - the dealers surveyed were
reporting retail new unit sales down
by between three and four percent
for the first two months of the year.
Because of the strength of
March, generally delivering at least
50 percent of first quarter sales,
Robert W. Baird and Co. have
maintained their full quarter US
retail estimate of +2 percent (some
36,400 bikes), but it will have to
have been a very good March in
T
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Pages 55-56
order for that to have happened.
Dealers reported slight declines
in PG&A and service income, as well
as new bike retail, but positive used
bike retail trends should "help
dealers work through used bike
inventory - and help protect used
bike values", according to Baird.
While dealers are managing to
sell all the Tourers, CVOs and Trikes
they can get hold of, Sportsters,
60% selling
below MSRP
Dynas, Softails, V-Rods and Street
models are trending negative.
A lot of dealers referenced
weather issues as being a factor in
the first two months of the year, but
the survey revealed considerable
anecdotal evidence that HarleyDavidson could be facing product
mix issues.
Baird asked dealers to rate the
impact of key factors on retail
demand in the period, and while
new products were rated positively
all other demand factors
contributed negatively to the retail
environment.
Notably, dealers cited a
"sequential deterioration in
weather and indicated that this was
by far the largest demand headwind
quarter-to-date" with trade-in
values, government action/inaction
and local economy issues" also
cited as negatives.
In terms of inventory and
promotions, dealers indicated that
new bike inventory is "balanced for
this time of year" with 77 percent
of dealers indicating that inventory
is "about right".
Despite positive used bike retail
trends on a volume-weighted basis,
dealers consider used bike
inventory to be too high - likely a
result of more frequent trades
associated with new bike retail
sales.
Continues on page 8 >>>
APR 2015
ISSUE #189
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