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T H E O N LY M A G A Z I N E F O R T H E W O R L D W I D E V- T W I N PA R T S , A C C E S S O RY A N D P E R F O R M A N C E I N D U S T RY
APRIL 2014
AMD/Baird quarterly Harley dealer survey
ISSUE #177
reveals weather and promo woes, soft MRSPs,
yet strong demand for more new bike inventory NEWS
T
he quarterly AMD/Baird
survey of authorized HarleyDavidson dealers in the
United States and internationally
has revealed "weak retail and
traffic" in most areas of the US
during January and February, with
only 24 percent of those surveyed
saying that consumer showroom
traffic was "better than
expected".
Some 47 percent of dealer surveys
said that January and February retail
sales were worse than expected (33
percent said sales were better than
expected). Though with March generally
accounting for around half of Q1 retail
sales, Milwaukee based analyst Robert
W. Baird & Co. Inc. was modeling an endof-quarter improvement to leave its
annual forecast for 2014 worldwide
Harley new model sales "unchanged" at
+6 percent for the year domestically, and
+7 percent internationally.
Sales grew by 4.4 percent in the
United States in 2013 (compared to
2012) and by 4.3 percent internationally.
This forecast is despite the fact that
the adverse weather in much of the
United States clearly hit not just
showroom traffic but also deals written.
The US dealers surveyed said that their
retail unit sales for January and through
mid-February were off by -11 percent
compared with their Jan/Feb experience
in 2013, with reported used unit sales
down by some 9 percent.
Internationally, reported retail sales
annual forecast
"unchanged" at
+6 percent
were off a massive 25 percent in Canada
for the period concerned, but up by some
10 percent elsewhere in the world.
Commenting on the effects of the
weather, one dealer said "Traffic overall
is down considerably. The people who
are purchasing have been in the process
for a while"; another that "sub-freezing
weather is causing fewer people to come
into the dealership. Last year was
warmer and more people were still riding
in January and February"; a third that
"door swings are down 40 percent YTD
over 2013; sales are down 44 percent."
Another said that "Weather has killed
us, but Harley hasn't helped either." But
proving that the picture was mixed,
another said that "Traffic and bike sales
have both remained steady in spite of
record breaking snowfall and cold
temperatures", with another saying that
"we expect traffic and sales to continue
increasing this spring in response to
strong consumer interest in Project
Rushmore models and new products
introduced by the The Motor Company."
Echoing the sentiment with regard to
new product, one dealer commented
that their dealership was seeing "Lots of
new feet coming through the door"; and
another that their dealership had "sold
better in 2014 vs. 2013", and one even
reported being "+150 percent over last
year for the year so far".
Inventory levels and promotional
activity are always subjects that polarize
opinion among Harley's dealer
community.
Most indicated that new bike
inventories remained "lean", 86 percent
of respondents reported it about right
(57 percent) or too low for the time of
year; but dealers were rather more
Continued on page 6
Tour-spec Sportster
and return of the
Low Rider
PART 2 OF THE 2014 SHOW REVIEW
REPORTS OF DEMISE
GREATLY EXAGGERATED
PROGUIDE
The
Naughty
Gentleman
The Naughty Gentleman from
Second City Customs in the UK took
the win in the Production class at
the 2013 World Championship and
claimed an S&S engine as the prize
VICTORY & INDIAN
PRO GUIDE