I ' ve been doing this for way too long. I wrote my first ever AMD Magazine comment piece for the September 1993 edition. Added to the nearly 200 such missives written for International Dealer News would also be a bunch of other ' ad hocs ' for various specials, prior brand iterations and now defunct motorcycle industry publications I launched at various stages( namely pre-Lehman Apocalypse era magazines). Altogether I must have come up with more than 600 such pieces in the past 32 years. Some months it is difficult to find a subject that does justice to the very high page traffic that I know this page receives- something I am so grateful for and never take for granted. Mostly though there is always something that piques, even if it is still a struggle to nail the form of words and devise the shape to a narrative that resolves. On the other hand, sometimes there are multiple strands of current market activity or wider issues that compete for the space- some of them serious, some not so. But to channel an American folk song( IMHO most beautifully covered by Ry Cooder)- never, and I mean N-E-V-E-R Can A Poor Man( or woman) Have Stood Such Times and Lived to Tell the economic autosarcophagy
Foxtrot. Uniform. Bravo. Alpha. Romeo.
I ' ve been doing this for way too long. I wrote my first ever AMD Magazine comment piece for the September 1993 edition. Added to the nearly 200 such missives written for International Dealer News would also be a bunch of other ' ad hocs ' for various specials, prior brand iterations and now defunct motorcycle industry publications I launched at various stages( namely pre-Lehman Apocalypse era magazines). Altogether I must have come up with more than 600 such pieces in the past 32 years. Some months it is difficult to find a subject that does justice to the very high page traffic that I know this page receives- something I am so grateful for and never take for granted. Mostly though there is always something that piques, even if it is still a struggle to nail the form of words and devise the shape to a narrative that resolves. On the other hand, sometimes there are multiple strands of current market activity or wider issues that compete for the space- some of them serious, some not so. But to channel an American folk song( IMHO most beautifully covered by Ry Cooder)- never, and I mean N-E-V-E-R Can A Poor Man( or woman) Have Stood Such Times and Lived to Tell the economic autosarcophagy
Story as we are faced with right now- especially if you happen to earn your living from the Harley-Davidson parts and accessory aftermarket. Whether it was a recurrent theme such as Ukraine and the abject failure of nations who claim to be freedom loving to love Ukraine ' s freedom; whether it was to be the abject failures of successive Harley-Davidson managements to exploit and nurture the brand gifts they had the privilege of inheriting; or whether I chose the Brexit-esque scale of economic and national brand reputation self-harm we see playing out in Washington right now- there is not one single choice I can make and not even FUBAR covers the combination effects of the present malaise. The idea of evolution, the idea of philosophical, economic, political, educational, scientific and social progress is that in the long march of time " all things to the better get ". But WTF? From the management incompetence of the ' Milwaukee Meltdown ' to kicking sand in the faces of the millions who sacrificed their tomorrows so we can enjoy our todays. From the genius of the Bretton Woods agreements to economic autosarcophagy. It feels like the world that successive generations have strived to help nudge in the direction of capitalist verities- such as free trade, of democracy, truth, choice, wealth, freedom of expression- it feels like the world that got us to this happy place is now disappearing down a Teflon coated P-trap. The trifecta of absurdities- that Ukraine started the war against Russia, that the EU was founded to screw the United States and that tariffs are designed for any purpose other than to suppress domestic demand- are utter, utter nonsense. Yet here we are. The first quarter of the 21st century already in the rear-view mirror and this is the garbage that passes as ' good governance '. To put the ' late [ and ongoing ] unpleasantness ' into a more accessible context, one that brings the madness we see spinning around us closer to the endeavour we all call our ' day job ', consider this. Despite the economic and geopolitical uncertainties in most global markets
( developed and otherwise) that engulfed us as a result of ' The Great Inflation ', and the interest rate spike it triggered, the demand for motorcycles- be it as a transport solution or as a leisure Dollar discretionary spend- has never, and I mean N-E-V- E-R been stronger. Sadly, of markets, that cannot be said of The United States- not the only metric that makes the US an outlier at this time. Growth was just starting to recover from the twin energy and supply chain crises, and even where it was still soft( borderline non-existent in fact- looking at you Germany) new motorcycle registrations in 2023 and 2024 were near or actual alltime records. In Italy( especially), Spain, France and even in the UK- where detecting an economic pulse is an inexact science- the demand for motorcycles remains robust. Those ' Big Five ' markets account for 80 percent of PTW( Powered Two-Wheeler) sales in Europe, but even in the rest of what constitutes Europe in the widest sense( a market of some 750 million people in total) sales are ' flat ' at worst- not growing markedly but neither are people walking away from the motorcycle market. While unit sales in China, Thailand, Australia and Japan, for example, were down last year, elsewhere sales were up. Strongly so in many important markets. India, Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines, Brazil, Mexico, Columbia, Argentina( even!) were all up. Global PTW sales in 2024 are reported at 61.8m units, up by + 2.7 %. Despite a sorry picture in Kenya, Africa as whole is seeing PTW growth- from a market value of $ 3.68bn in 2024 PTW sales in the African continent as a whole are expected to nearly double to $ 6.51bn by 2020. Of all the target rich environment opportunities available to me this month, it has to be Harley that looms largest in my personal crosshairs. Jared Dourdeville, the Hedge Fund placement director who quit the Harley board recently did so in order to expose the weakness of the present board and, in theory, to protect his company ' s concerns for its investment. In doing so he lost no time in exposing a long list of abject management failures under Jochen Zeitz ' watch. For me the way that Harley responded to the DEI furore was indeed abject, but not in the way that many clearly believe. With Harley ' s core Boomer demographic aging out, not equipping themselves to be able to attract new generations and ' styles ' of customers has been criminal. As was abandoning so many potentially viable and valuable export markets five years ago. Harley ' s refusal to compete with other manufacturers for new generations of customer in additional motorcycle segments has been morally unforgivable. We are all capitalists, and we all got to where we are by competing- Harley ' s exceptionalism is killing it. Turning your back on trying to grow a business because you think you can return shareholder value through some misguided less-can-be-more interpretation of where and how company is judged has been so, so wrong. Sometimes less is just less.
Robin Bradley
Co-owner / Editor-in-Chief robin @ dealer-world. com