CSIR research has shown how southern Africa
temperatures are rising at about twice the
global rate of temperature increase. “This
means that a global temperature increase
of 5°C implies an increase of about 3°C in
southern Africa, and an increase of 2°C
globally implies an increase of about 4°C in
our region.”
But the report shows there is hope. “It’s still
possible for us to avoid the most dangerous
impacts of climate change. For this to be
achieved, we need to restrict global warming
to 1.5°C. This will, however, require an
immense worldwide effort and collaboration.”
The report gives the numbers. “We will have
to cut emissions of carbon dioxide with 45%
by 2030, and by 2050 there should be net zero
CO2 emissions by 2050,” he says.
“This poses a tremendous challenge to us as a
species, since it means we need to completely
revolutionise the way in which we generate
energy on the planet. Effectively, we need
to move away from fossil fuels as our main
source of energy, to alternative forms of
energy such renewable forms of energy.”
The IPCC report subsequently finds that
climate change will impact on economic
growth globally, through damaging weather
events and reductions in productivity. “One
opportunity for African countries to adapt
may be to collaborate more closely, for
example, by enhanced schemes to trade food,
and transport water and energy between
countries,” he says.
Prof Bob Scholes, a systems ecologist at the
Global Change Institute at Wits University,
explains that South Africa warms at twice the
global average. “We have already crossed
1.5ºC and are close to 2ºC. The world could
reach 1.5ºC by as early as 2030, at which point
the interior of South Africa will be near 3ºC.
This has deeply negative consequences for
water supply, crop agriculture, livestock and
human well-being.”
While the IPCC report does confirm “what we
already suspected, it makes it clear and stark,”
Scholes remarks.
David Hallowes, a researcher at non-profit
organisation groundWork, Friends of the Earth
SA, says the threat to people’s livestock and
access to food will increase dramatically at 2ºC.
“That includes in South Africa, where over half
the people are poor, and more people will be
tipped into poverty,”
AgriKultuur |AgriCulture
The interaction of climate change and “a
market organised for profit” will be devastating
- as it was in the drought of 2014/15. “As
in that case, much of the pain is hidden as
households can afford less as well as less
nutritious food,” Hallowes says.
South Africa, says Scholes, is far ahead of
projections on the roll-out of renewable
energy.
“But at the same time, we are committed to
two very large coal-fired power stations, which
are planned to continue operations for the
next 60 years. It is stated policy that further
coal-fired power stations are in the offing. This
is inconsistent with our Paris Accord goals.”
As Africa’s big emitter, South Africa owes a
climate debt to the rest of the continent, adds
Hallowes. “The government likes to justify the
continuing use of coal on its supposed ‘priority’
for addressing poverty and inequality. But
not responding urgently to mitigate climate
change is an indication this is not their priority.
The report shows that steep reductions are
urgently needed now.
“South Africa’s draft Integrated Resource Plan
(IRP) 2018 does not demonstrate any such
urgency. In particular, the forcing in of the two
coal IPPs for construction in the early 2020s is
unconscionable.”
Robyn Hugo, the programme head for
pollution and climate change at the Centre
for Environmental Rights, says that not only is
South Africa extremely vulnerable to climate
change but it’s a major greenhouse gas
emitter, with the bulk of these emissions from
its coal-based electricity sector.
The IPCC report shows how countries’
Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) -
pledges for how they intend to address climate
change under the 2015 Paris Agreement - are
not on track to limit global warming to 1.5ºC
above pre-industrial levels.
Hugo says South Africa’s peak, plateau and
decline trajectory and NDC have been found
to be hopelessly inadequate. “In any event,
the Paris Agreement requires party countries’
ambitions to become stricter every five years.
So even if South Africa were on track with
the NDC now, this would not be the case if
we were, for example, to build the two new
coal-fired power stations independent power
producers that the government proposes in
the draft IRP.”
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