Kenya and Burundi went through the same thing . President Samia ’ s rise to power was smooth as far as the constitution is concerned . The political process , however , is proving to be a prolonged transition all the way to 2025 . There is a good reason for all this .
For starters , her own party ’ s newspaper wrote a story claiming that she will not be running for the presidency in the general election in 2025 . Although the story was a total fabrication , it pointed to the rumblings from within .
She is not the only incumbent to see plotters around her or hear whispers of possible challengers . While it is not against CCM ’ s constitution to challenge the incumbent president in party polls , it is frowned upon because of what is known in Tanzania as the ‘ CCM ’ s tradition ’ of letting the incumbent complete two terms in office . All the presidents of the multiparty era went through these rumours ; and when it comes to the Zanzibar presidency , the processes are so acrimonious in some cases that they are only settled in Dodoma , at the party ’ s headquarters .
Those vying to be nominated as a presidential candidate are required to collect signatures of members of the party , as ‘ guarantors ’. It does not matter how many signatures a prospective candidate collects ; the final decision is with the national congress which votes for the decisions made by the central committee . As a result , the race for the presidency within the
CCM ends up with calls for party unity after a bruising process along factional lines . In the first multiparty elections in 1995 , it was Mwalimu Julius Nyerere ’ s personal intervention that finally settled the race within the CCM . The factions which were formed during that race were to prove decisive in the 2005 process which led to Jakaya Kikwete being nominated by his party , after the faction that propelled him to power – mtandao – had almost become another party within the CCM . In 2015 , in order to sidestep one faction which had proved to be more powerful than the rest , the CCM powerbrokers settled for the late Dr Magufuli ( who was considered an ‘ outsider ’) for the presidency . This prompted three members of the central committee to speak to journalists in the middle of the night claiming that the process was unfair and had flouted the party ’ s rules .
Changing voter demographics
The CCM struggles to capture the imagination of young voters and their ambitions and dreams , and this remains an issue in the long run . Young voters have no memory of the past to be nostalgic about an era long gone . They are a majority in the country , with a youthful population whose average age is that of a teenager .
While the usual political indicators like voting patterns , the share of the votes , voter apathy / indifference , or the electoral performance of opposition parties , might be useful , they offer little insight into this issue . With regard to voting patterns , the majority of rural voters , who are semi-educated or illiterate , vote for the CCM , while urban voters , especially the youths , favour opposition parties .
To this end , CCM ’ s vote has only declined in some elections because voters were angry or frustrated by some failures or the endless revelations of mega corruption scandals . However , these votes ‘ cast in anger ’ had little to do with the confidence of voters in the opposition ; it was rather a harsh reminder to the ruling party that things could change – and are already gradually changing . Viewed differently , the relationship between the CCM and the majority of voters so far can be likened to a parent-child relationship where even when relations are at an all-time low , each party would come to the aid of the other in their hour of need . However , with the changing voter demographics , victory is no longer guaranteed . If the youth turn their frustrations into political activism and manage to show up on polling stations , then the party will be in real trouble .
That said , for now , all indications for the CCM losing power point to potent threats from within . In other words , the biggest threat to CCM ’ s continued political domination is the CCM itself , and when the curtain finally comes down , the party would have actively participated in its own defeat .
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