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Those demand drivers in these markets will change as the importance of existing applications ( in steelmaking , fertilisers and many others ) is diminished by the quick ramp up in demand for uses related to the energy transition , especially for battery metals .
Africa can play a major role in minerals production for the elements listed above , with the African project pipeline accounting for between at least 3 % and up to 35 % of 2027 production possible across this range , excluding cobalt where Africa already accounts for around two-thirds of global mined output .
Macro goals are bottlenecked by micro needs Local ESG challenges often do not align with long term climate goals . The world will need accelerated , geopolitically resilient supply of key minerals extracted in an environmentally and socially responsible manner . People near potential mine sites need protection from the environmental damages of mining and processing , while also benefiting from the economic advantages of mining . Mining project investors need reliably profitable businesses that provide future returns , whilst ensuring environmental and social responsibility .
The diverging needs of local committees , the global community , and mining investors will lead to mismatches in the decarbonisation supply response problem including :
• Technology uncertainty for both production methods and for downstream uses .
• Timing mismatches of supply and demand , where supply can come too early , reducing pricing in the market due to oversupply , or supply can come too late and destroy demand due to high prices .
• How and when to apply traditional due diligence processes and where these may need to be adapted to new or unique circumstances .
• Local and global needs diverging so severely that reaching to achieve one negatively affects the other . Local needs will often trump global goals , due to the acute investment the local community has in the project against the more diffuse desire for decarbonisation .
• Power availability and power prioritisation , where limited power production is met by ever increasing needs from power hungry mining or mineral processing and a rapidly growing population in Africa . º Metals such as aluminium and silicon , sometimes both known as solid electricity due to their significant consumption of electricity in basic metal production , sit at the top of the chat for power needs . With both being critical to decarbonisation , prioritisation of power between industry and home electricity and heating will be a paramount issue for policy makers and regulators .
• The risk appetite mismatch between emerging mining project developers and the potential financiers who will fund the project . Funding projects in highly developed mining countries , like those in North America , Europe and Australia appears to be less risky than those in the myriad of jurisdictions in Africa .
Bottlenecks specific to Africa Specifically , mining development in Africa faces challenges which are not seen , or not seen to the same degree , in more developed mining jurisdictions ( and apply unevenly across the continent ). These include : 1 . Lack of rail and transport infrastructure including a mostly limited navigable river system 2 . Intra-Africa trade barriers form long queues at land ports where trucks wait – in some instances , days for border crossing , to tariffs and taxes which limit trade and travel on the continent 3 . High costs of capital due to increased risk 4 . Security at the mine site 5 . Lack of past development in some areas , leading to lack of settled mining regulations 6 . Long development timeline for permitted mining , leading to increases in illegal mining in some cases
These local challenges must be abated to allow for greater mineral production . Some of these are issues which are much larger than mining , but some are specific to the sector and targeted action can help to make true progress to allow for a greater opening of the mineral wealth from Africa .
Why is this so important ? Playing catch-up on decarbonisation due to a slow start means greater risks down the line . If there is little consensus at the beginning of the decarbonisation drive , as we see today , then there will be a waiting game played which will be in part blamed on the fear of technical obsolescence . If there is little consensus on the pace of change , we will see an avalanche of intent resulting in a dribble of successful precedents . Eventually , there will be some consensus on outcome and the fact that it is possible , but the development curve is getting steeper , if this consensus is not reached early .
Specific short-term solutions are needed to achieve long term macro goals 1 . Quantify the problems a . Choosing where to intervene relies on understanding the micro issues most responsible for preventing the supply response . Data needs to be understood in the specific context of the key bottlenecks , so that solutions are most efficiently deployed .
2 . Pick the fight a . Eliminating risk is impossible in a rapidly evolving market . Breaking down the elements of risk in as specific a way as possible can make certain areas of risk more palatable to stakeholders . Finding micro solutions for micro problems will be key to solving macro goals .
3 . Targeted solutions a . Once the data and risk are focused and adequately understood , targeted commitment is needed from all stakeholders :
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