African Mining October 2019 | Page 66

EXTRACTIVES UNDERGO A CONTINENTAL SHIFT Africa is seeing a rapid expansion in mining and project development, writes Duncan Bonnett. S outhern and East Africa is mining country and Central and West Africa is oil country, right? Maybe in the past, but a combination of new technology, revisiting archives, expanded infrastructure and global demand is seeing a rapid expansion of mining activity in Central and West Africa, with the eastern seaboard and hinterland of Africa now a global hotspot for oil and gas development. It was recently announced with much joy and fanfare or shock and despair (depending on which country you live in) that Ghana has overtaken South Africa as Africa’s premier gold producer. South Africa’s ageing mines, depth and soaring costs were cited as key reasons for this, and whilst true, they don’t tell the full story – changes in much of the rest of Africa are seeing a rapid expansion in mining prospecting and project development. About 15 years ago, Mali was the flavour of the month, followed by Ghana as the two countries embarked on regulatory reforms that encouraged more companies to prospect for minerals there. They’ve been followed by Côte d'Ivoire, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone and others to a lesser extent, as a combination of gradually maturing legal and regulatory systems, political stability (not guaranteed in some cases) and the ability to get feet on the ground has improved in the last decade. With a sense that mineral prices are recovering in some quarters, it provides fertile ground for this exploration in ‘new’ jurisdictions. Meanwhile, on the other side of Africa, an explosion of new oil and gas projects is set to transform the region completely. Whilst not strictly mining projects, many of the goods and services used are common to both industries and so represent a good African Mining  October 2019 Currently, Mozambique, Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia and Rwanda are all at various stages of unlocking this oil or gas potential and the associated infrastructure and downstream potential they hold. In addition, Zambia, Malawi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Somalia and the semi-autonomous region of Somaliland are all gearing up for exploration and development of perceived large deposits and South Sudan is looking to ramp production back up to around 350 000 barrels a day from current levels of less than half that. The value of these developments could be in the region of USD125-billion to USD130-billion over the next decade. "On the other side of Africa, an explosion of new oil and gas projects is set to transform the region completely. In addition, there is a good spread of minerals being explored for, from gold and diamonds, to the new energy minerals like lithium, graphite, cobalt and others, as well as base metals and minerals such as iron ore, bauxite, copper, potash and others. Excluding South Africa’s very well-developed sector, Central and West Africa now account for around 40% of current exploration and development projects in sub-Saharan Africa – a figure that is well above the levels of a decade ago. 64  opportunity for suppliers familiar with either. From Mozambique in the south to the Horn of Africa, what is being described as the world’s last great unexplored oil and gas region is finally getting the attention it deserves. Again, regulatory changes and technology (with lower associated development costs) are driving much of this, even if it isn’t always easy going. Demand for both oil and gas in Asia is fuelling much of this development, with greener energy now much prized in China, Japan and India as they move away from coal. Finally, to complete the counter- intuitive picture of Africa’s supposed extractives map, Botswana is seeing much interest in non-traditional minerals such as copper, manganese and other base metals. South Africa is seeing the development of mines in new areas and the expansion or rehabilitation of existing ones, despite the current climate of gloom in the sector. Namibia and Angola are also looking more prospective, whilst the DRC, straddling southern central and eastern Africa as it does, has a raft of developments underway and in the pipeline. There remain headwinds, however, with regulatory or political uncertainty still a major factor in some countries, including long-standing mining countries such as Zambia, Tanzania, South Africa and some in Central Africa. In addition, there is still a large infrastructure backlog to remote mining areas that is impeding development of resources in uncertain price climates. As such, it’s not a done deal that the surge in activity will sustain itself in every country or region, but there is certainly enough activity for companies to sit up and look anew at their targets for expansion into the region.  www. africanmining.co.za