AFRICAN BUZZ
GUINEA:
EMERGING FROM THE SHADOWS
According to LEX Africa member fi rm in Guinea Conakry,
Thiam & Associes, there are glimmers of hope for the country’s
economy.
Recent reports from three respected international organisations
sketch a relatively upbeat picture of economic prospects in the
West African state of Guinea. This might be surprising to an
uninformed outsider as Guinea has been a notorious case-
study in governance and economic failure for more than half a
century.
A World Bank country overview in May 2019 highlights ‘robust
growth’ of 10% in 2016 and 2017 and 5.8% in 2018 – off a low
base – driven by foreign direct investment in the mining sector.
It adds that ‘investment in infrastructure and the expansion of
the primary and tertiary sectors’ remains strong.
The ADB says this growth is ‘bolstered by reforms aimed at
improving the business climate, access to electricity, and
investment in the agro-food sector’ and predicts that real GDP will
grow by 6% in 2019 and 2020. “Guinea has exceptional mining
potential, including two-thirds of the world’s known bauxite
reserves, as well as gold, iron ore and diamonds,” says the ADB.
The US Commerce Department informs potential American
investors in Guinea: “The return of political stability and the
inauguration of a democratically elected president in 2010
facilitated international engagement in the former French colony.”
Anyone with Africa’s interests at heart will hope these words
herald a new beginning for a country epitomising the
continent’s malaise of underdevelopment, confl ict and poverty.
From independence in 1958 onward, Guineans suff ered under
the rule of ruthless dictators and calamitous socialist policies.
The fi rst democratic elections in 2010 saw long-time persecuted
opposition leader Alpha Condé take control and a new dawn
beckoning. However, the outbreak of Ebola in 2014 was a
crippling blow, while confl ict in neighbouring Sierra Leone and
Liberia saw hundreds of thousands of refugees further straining
Guinea’s struggling economy.
Internal political rumblings have also sapped optimism, with
elections due in 2019 being postponed to 2020 and Condé
intimating he wants to change the constitution to give himself
a presidential third term – something he was once strongly
against and which has infl amed the opposition.
Nonetheless, some of the world’s top economists see Guinea’s
general trend as being upwards. At present, mineral exports
make up more than 90% of exports. The bauxite deposits are
a glittering prize for bold investors. High-grade iron ore is
already being exploited, though legal issues and falling global
commodity prices have put a brake on the sector’s progress.
Gold, diamonds and undetermined amounts of uranium and oil
contribute to Guinea being one of the mineral-wealthiest places
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African Mining Publication
The country – sometimes known as Guinea-Conakry – is still one
of the poorest in Africa and continues to face big developmental
challenges, but the World Bank, the African Development Bank
and the US Commerce Department all see glimmers of hope on
the horizon.
A map showing the location of the massive Simandou iron ore project
in Guinea. Simandou was never developed, but now there is new hope
in Guinea.
in Africa. The US Commerce Department fl ags “great potential
for companies which can contribute to Guinea’s infrastructure
development” – in other words build roads, railways and ports
to facilitate activities.
It also points potential investors to opportunities in
hydroelectric power, with numerous rivers and abundant rainfall
suggesting Guinea could be a sub-regional power hub of
note. All this has the World Bank saying: “natural conditions are
favourable for growth”. But it cautions: “Guinea must improve its
governance if it hopes to fully realise this potential and step up
the structural transformation process.”
Source: LEX Africa member fi rm in Guinea Conakry, Thiam &
Associes
ZIMBABWE:
GOVERNMENT URGED TO HALT
CRACKDOWN
In a statement following a recent spate of arbitrary arrests,
abductions, beatings, and torture of opposition members, civil
society leaders, and activists in Zimbabwe, the independent
watchdog organisation Freedom House urged the government
of Zimbabwe to end its violent crackdown on dissent in the
country and immediately investigate reports of beatings and
torture by state security agents.
According to Jon Temin, director of Africa programmes at
Freedom House, these attacks violate Zimbabweans’ rights to
free assembly, association, and expression, and have continued
despite repeated promises by President Emmerson Mnangagwa
that his government would usher in a new dispensation that
respects fundamental rights. “If Zimbabwe truly wants to break
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