Feature
Africa’s growing young population will
have a significant impact on the future
and prosperity of the continent.
What will shape
Africa in 2019?
As the past two decades of ‘rising and falling’ have shown, the Africa story is far more
than simply linear growth rates, writes Professor Lyal White and Liezl Rees.
N
uances and differences across the
continent are unlike anywhere else
in the world. And apart from its
divergent nature, the issues that are driving
change in Africa will have significant
repercussions in 2019 and well into the
immediate future.
The single most important factor that is
likely to shape the continent in 2019 is
political change and the associated risk that
comes with it. Rising authoritarianism and
populist regimes, alongside ageing presidents
and political protests, have a profound and
lasting impact on the continent.
A string of elections is set to take place
across the continent this year. Leading
countries in Africa are experiencing an
outright challenge on political institutions
through state capture and prevailing
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corruption. This, coupled with growing
disenchantment towards democracy
alongside a global rise of populism and
so-called hybrid regimes, means these
elections will be pivotal to Africa’s
democratic outlook. But it will be the
two largest economies, South Africa and
Nigeria, that will capture the interest of
electoral pundits this year.
South Africa’s ruling African National
Congress is expecting an easy win, despite
a lacklustre performance and declining
popularity. But post-election politics and
policy will prove more relevant to South
Africa’s trajectory. With growing populism
and factionalism within both the ruling party
and in the opposition, South Africa is at its
most significant crossroad since the birth of its
democracy in 1994. The choices and decisions
made by the electorate, leadership, and
policymakers will determine the fate of not
only South Africa, but the continent at large.
Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation, held
general elections in February on the back
of a range of destabilising issues across the
country — from an ongoing war against
Islamist militants in the north-east, a violent
conflict between farmers and herders over
land and water use, to a declining economy
that has failed to service the needs of a
ballooning population. Muhammadu
Buhari, whose presidency has been plagued
by ill health, triumphed against Atiku
Abubakar, a businessman who served as
vice-president from 1999 to 2007.
Democracy challenges: rising political risk
The Economic Intelligence Unit’s 2018
Democracy Index, which reviews the
state of democracy worldwide for 167
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