Comment
Politics wrecks growth
in southern Africa
T
he so-called winds of change that
started blowing across southern
Africa two years ago, have
morphed into headwinds instead. Recent
political change in Angola, South Africa,
Botswana, and Zimbabwe were hailed
as historical events that would change
the trajectory of the region significantly.
However, economic realities have stemmed
the tide of optimism that many felt were
the beginning of the resurrection of the
‘Africa Rising’ narrative.
In hindsight, the damage done by
incompetent and corrupt governments,
especially in South Africa and Zimbabwe,
has eventually taken its toll, and the
brooms that intended sweeping clean
afterwards, have to take full responsibility
for the sins of their predecessors. Of
all four new leaders in the southern
African region, the president of Angola,
João Lourenço, has been the boldest in
restructuring the economy and flushing
out corruption and nepotism. Lourenço is
driving privatisation relentlessly, and the
mining industry in particular has benefited
from his reform programme. The opposite
is true in South Africa and Zimbabwe.
The biggest disappointment of all would
surely be Zimbabwe, where President
Emmerson Mnangagwa’s government
is stumbling from one blunder to the
next, without even knowing. But then,
could we have expected anything better
from a leader corps that came to power
through a military coup, and is ruled by
generals? Or from leaders who should
be testifying about their involvement
in human massacres and human rights
abuses in international courts of law
rather than brokering big business
deals. From being regarded as a fresh
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breeze after Robert Mugabe’s misrule,
Mnangagwa has become an even bigger
disaster. Zimbabwe is a failed state and
doing business in the country is almost
impossible. It is not open for business
(as its president so boastfully proclaims)
unless you line pockets, and the sad
reality is that nobody really knows if the
situation will ever change.
In South Africa, President Cyril
Ramaphosa, for all his good intentions,
is hamstrung by a faction within the
African National Congress (ANC) that
seems intent on destroying the economy
at all costs. The group is closely aligned
to former president Jacob Zuma and
until Ramaphosa’s hands are untied, he
is a lame duck without direction. From
being the shining light, South Africa
is fumbling in the dark, literally. Its
national energy provider, Eskom, is in
a debt-ridden downward spiral from
where it can never emerge, unless it is
privatised. Without enough electricity
and business-friendly policies, the South
African economy is heading towards the
same black hole as Eskom, regardless
of the new president’s charisma. Zuma’s
tenure has cost South Africa dearly, and
Ramaphosa is paying the price. His ‘New
Dawn’ was stillborn.
Mokgweetsi Masisi of Botswana is
another president that has to deal with
the backlash that accompanies the change
of guard in African countries. Former
president Ian Khama’s shadow looms large
over Masisi’s decision-making. Factional
battles within the Botswana Democratic
Party (BDP) have ravaged the ruling party
since Khama stepped down as president
last year, and questions are being asked of
a country with the reputation of being a
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beacon of hope for democracy in Africa.
Despite its challenges, though, Botswana,
and its neighbour Namibia, remains low-
risk, business-friendly environments.
Meanwhile, Mozambique’s economy
is gaining steam, and with the gas
fields of the Rovuma Basin bound
to start producing soon, all is set for
Mozambique to ride the tide of new
prosperity. The security situation,
however, especially in the Cabo Delgado
Province in the north of the country,
has deteriorated significantly. American
petroleum company Anadarko recently
reported that one employee was killed
and several injured after an attack close
to the construction site of its liquefied
natural gas (LNG) plant in Cabo
Delgado. Islamist groups are claiming
responsibility for numerous incidents in
the region over the past year, and it has
become risky for foreign companies to do
business in the far northern parts of the
country. There is a real concern that the
situation will get worse once all the gas
plants are up and running.
Leon
Editor
MAY - JUNE 2019 AFRICAN MINING
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