African buzz
Coal set to grow
According to data and analytics company GlobalData, world coal
production is set to grow exponentially to 2022, despite major
players scaling down capacities. Although Germany, the UK, US,
Canada, and Ukraine are phasing out domestic coal production
capacity, expansion of production capacity in countries such
as India and Indonesia is predicted to generate modest annual
growth of 1.3% in coal production over the next four years; with
output reaching 7.6 billion tonnes in 2022.
After declining consecutively for three years, global coal
production increased by 2.8% to 7 188.8 million tonnes (Mt) in
2017 and then rose again by a marginal 0.1% to 7 194.1Mt in
2018. Growth has been driven by India, Indonesia, and Russia,
where production increased by 3.1%, 1.2%, and 3.7% CAGR,
respectively, between 2014 and 2018.
Vinneth Bajaj, senior mining analyst at GlobalData, says:
“Despite growth in 2017 and 2018, production has yet to reach
historical levels, as several mining companies have withdrawn,
either partially or completely, from the coal business. These
include China’s Yanzhou Coal, which has disposed of five coal
projects in the last five years, and Nacco Industries, POSCO,
and CNX Resources who have collectively scaled back their
coal assets by almost 50%. Rio Tinto, BHP, and Vale have also
Coal production (Mt) by country, 2014–2022.
sold almost all of their coal assets, with the former completely
exiting coal production.”
There are over 300 coal projects potentially commencing
operations between 2019 and 2022. Of these, 92 are currently
under construction, with the remainder under various stages of
development. Of the total, 57 are located in Australia, 55 in India,
54 in China, 30 in South Africa, 18 each in Canada and Indonesia,
and 15 in the US.
Bajaj adds: “The impact of these commencements will be
marginally offset by over 100 coal projects expected to phase out
over the same period, including 34 in India, 15 in China, 14 in
South Africa, and 13 each in the US and Australia. b
Production in India, Indonesia, and Australia is forecast to
grow at respective compound annual growth rates (CAGRs)
of 10.9%, 3.9%, and 2.3%, respectively, between 2018 and
2022, with the high growth in India helping to reduce the
country’s reliance on imports to feed its expanding coal-fired
power generation.
World coal production is set to grow exponentially up to 2022.
www.africanmining.co.za
MAY - JUNE 2019 AFRICAN MINING
11