COMMENT •

Sharyn Macnamara – Senior writer • sharyn @ interactmedia . co . za

A poignant comment by Børge Brende , World Economic Forum ( WEF ) president , sums it all up , “ Renewing and improving the architecture of our national and international political and economic systems is this generation ’ s defining task . It will be a monumental undertaking , but an indispensable one . The Global Risks Report demonstrates how high the stakes are .”

The report ( drawn from a global survey of about 1 200 experts observing economic , societal , technological , geopolitical and environmental risks ) looked at three different time frames : one – what is top of the agenda currently ? Two – what things will look like two years out by 2025 ; and three – ten years out , by 2033 . From at least 31 risks in total , and their interconnectivity , the energy crisis lies at the very top with food crises and the cost of living following . Two years out , the cost of living is still the number one risk on the global agenda . Ten years out – the risks are forecast to be dominated by climate and environmental related risks , such as natural disasters , extreme weather events and large scale involuntary migration .

Today , leaders are facing polycrises , says the WEF : multiple , concurrent crises , compounding each other in an increasingly volatile trajectory – geopolitical and economic risks like inflation , a potential recession , trade wars and the rising cost of living , which in turn can lead to civil unrest and instability .

WEF points out that ‘ the now ’ is therefore dominated by securing supply chains – access to raw materials and components – ‘ turning from a just in time approach to a more just in case strategy ’ – bringing production closer to home , nearshoring , fracturing , stockpiling and a trend of vertical integration where companies are actually looking to aquire both suppliers and clients in order to take control of the whole value chain . Energy security seeking : an increase in reliance on coal to keep the lights on , while remaining committed to long term climate ambitions and speeding up the green energy transition ; accelerating digitalisation and automating processes ; increased cyber risks , cyber attacks and the potential of cyber warfare – an area where public and private partnership is crucial ; were all highlighted as global trends . WEF ’ s message was clear , “ While taking a long term and holistic view of the risks on the horizon , it is crucial that we have diversity around the table and economic inclusion to increase resilience .”

The multitude of ongoing crises calls for bold collective action . “ Cooperation in a Fragmented World ” was therefore the theme of the Annual Meeting in 2023 ² which took place 16-20 January , bringing together decision-makers from government , business , and civil society in Davos to address these issues and priorities for the year ahead .

Mckinsey leaders shared some of the key take-aways from the conference with regards to resilience and globalisation in a fragmented world . ³ The overall view was that the world is at the cusp of a new era , with changes and volatility all around us accelerating at a huge pace , while the geopolitics of our world have changed beyond recognition . There was a strange optimism in the mix with co-operation and a sense of intentionality and determination in execution front and centre – it was about the ‘ how ’ rather than the ‘ why ’ this year . With global productivity having waned recently , CEOs and policymakers must be decisive going forward to achieve the big growth agendas and resilience plans for the future .

On a local level , the question is , do our leaders have it in them to steer us through these turbulent but exciting times ? Based on what has recently taken place in South Africa , purely on an energy level with the latest shock waves of more corruption allegations opened up in De Ruyter ’ s interview at the time of writing – I would have to say , probably not .

It will be up to individuals to manage their immediate worlds to the best of their ability with all the trends and global goals in mind , if we are to adapt and thrive , as opposed to just surviving . To this point , our issue this month shows on many levels how good leadership can overcome obstacles – from the successes in gold with Gold Fields , to Tharisa ’ s achievements in PGMs and chrome , to how Schneider ‘ walks their sustainability talk ’, to our partner MTE ’ s bumper first trimester and industry technical feats that are assisting in achieving ‘ Zero Harm ’ in the mining sector , which carried economies through what we thought at the time were some of the toughest times in the world ’ s economic history . Little did we know what was coming , and yet we go on . It begs the question – what ’ s next ? •

References

1 . Developed in collaboration with Marsh McLennan and Zurich Insurance Group , is part of the World Economic Forum ' s ( WEF ) Global Risks Initiative

2 . https :// www . weforum . org / events / world-economic-forum-annualmeeting-2023

3 . Go to The World Economic Forum at Davos 2023 | McKinsey and the World Economic Forum | McKinsey & Company for more : https :// www . mckinsey . com / featured-insights / world-economic-forum / overview ? cid = other-eml-alt-mip-mck & hlkid = 30a6bf2ccbb748248377 55efde5edd56 & hctky = 14283285 & hdpid = 7c74cbed-55d5-40df-a973- 2389e1dd8495 # post-davos