UNPACKING AFRICA’ S ROLE IN THE GLOBAL ENERGY TRANSITION
Unpacking the acceleration of the global energy transition, Mark Evans( ME), Energy and Natural Resources partner at Oliver Wyman, is in conversation with African Mining, incorporating Mining Mirror, writer, Sharon Mdaka( SM).
According to Evans, Africa’ s energy transition is not a constraint; it is a strategic opportunity. With the right mix of pragmatism, policy stability and investment innovation, the continent can become one of the defining pillars of the global energy transition over the coming decade.
SM: How would you define Africa’ s current position in the global energy transition, particularly in relation to developed markets?
ME: Africa is at an earlier but strategically critical stage of the global energy transition. While developed markets are focused on decarbonising energy‐intensive systems, Africa faces a dual challenge: expanding access while managing emissions growth.
According to International Energy Agency data, Africa accounts for less than 4 % of global CO₂ emissions, with per‐capita emissions of around 1 tCO₂, compared with 8 – 10 tCO₂ in Europe and 14 – 15 tCO₂ in the US. Approximately 600 million people on the continent live without electricity, so access is the defining transition issue.
Africa also holds some of the world’ s most competitive renewable resources and around 30 % of global proven critical mineral reserves, positioning it to be a major player in future clean energy supply chains. The continent’ s transition will therefore be different in pace and shape, but central to global outcomes.
SM: While the continent is rich in renewable energy resources and critical minerals, progress remains uneven. What are the key structural challenges holding Africa back from transitioning at scale?
ME: The constraints are primarily structural rather than resource‐based. First, policy and regulatory uncertainty increase risk. In many markets, delays in permitting, unclear grid access rules, and weak enforcement of power purchase agreements undermine investor confidence.
Second, power market fragility is a major barrier. Many utilities operate with high losses and tariffs below cost recovery, limiting their ability to absorb new capacity. Across Sub‐Saharan Africa, average transmission and distribution losses exceed 18 %, compared with 6 – 8 % in OECD countries( World Bank).
Africa also has significant infrastructure gaps. The entire continent’ s 280GW of installed power capacity is roughly equivalent to Germany’ s, despite having a 20 times bigger population. Transmission underinvestment constrains renewable integration even where generation is competitive.
Finally, capital constraints are binding. Clean energy investment in Africa stood at around USD40 – 45-billion in 2023, representing approximately 2 % of global clean energy investment, despite Africa holding far greater long‐term demand growth potential( IEA).
SM: Energy access remains a major issue across the continent. How can African countries balance the need for expanded energy access with the pressure to decarbonise?
ME: Balancing access and decarbonisation require pragmatism and sequencing overstrict technology choices. According to the World Bank, around 80 % of Africans without electricity live in rural areas,
Supplied by Mark Evans
Mark Evans, Energy and Natural Resources partner at Oliver Wyman.
where grid extension is slow and costly. Here, off‐grid and mini‐grid solar solutions already account for more than half of new connections and are projected to be the lowest‐cost solution for about 40 % of future access needs by 2030, according to the IEA.
At the same time, flexible thermal capacity, particularly natural gas, can play a transitional role in supporting urban demand, industrialisation and grid stability, while displacing higher‐emissions diesel and heavy fuel oil. The decarbonisation pathway for Africa is therefore about lower‐carbon growth, not near‐term absolute emissions reductions. The goal is prioritising affordability, reliability, and development while steadily increasing the share of renewables over time.
SM: To what extent is infrastructure, including grid capacity, transmission networks and logistics, limiting the pace of the transition?
ME: Infrastructure is one of the most binding constraints on Africa’ s transition. Africa invests roughly USD15 – 20-billion per year in power infrastructure, yet estimates from the African Development Bank and IEA suggest USD40 – 50-billion annually is required through 2030 to support access, reliability and decarbonisation.
Grid limitations are a real bottleneck. In several markets, renewable projects face delays or reductions due to insufficient transmission capacity. Regional power trade remains limited, despite the existence of power pools, with cross‐border electricity trade accounting for less than 5 % of total generation.
Decentralised solutions and captive power, especially for mining and industry, are therefore playing a growing role, while targeted investment in transmission, storage and system control technologies is essential to unlock scale.
SM: Financing continues to be a major constraint. What practical changes are needed to unlock large-scale investment into Africa’ s energy transition?
ME: Africa’ s energy transition requires a step‐change in the volume and structure of financing. The IEA estimates Africa needs over USD190-billion per year in energy investment by the late 2020s to meet access and climate goals. This is nearly double what the continent is currently spending. Clean energy investment is limited, while around USD70-billion is spent annually on fossil fuels.
www. africanmining. co. za African Mining Publication African Mining African Mining • June 2026 • 27