SOUTH AFRICA ’ S ENERGY FUTURE HINGES ON FLEXIBILITY , NOT JUST RENEWABLES
By Tord Johnsson , general manager , Strategic Relations and Business , Africa at Wärtsilä Energy
While South Africa marked 200 consecutive days without load shedding in October 2024 , the deeper challenges within its energy system have remained unresolved . The relief seen in 2024 should not be seen as a long-term solution . The outdated power generation and inflexible power grid require urgent transformation and without integrating renewable energy effectively , the risk of future disruptions looms large .
True energy stability demands more than the absence of load shedding . It requires a dynamic , flexible power system that can support the country ’ s renewable ambitions . Simply expanding renewable capacity will not suffice without an adaptable grid . Other countries have integrated up to 40 % renewables , but face challenges like supply intermittency . To navigate this , South Africa needs a flexible energy framework to ensure stability and reliability .
South Africa is at a crucial turning point in its energy journey . The nation ’ s persistent power shortages and aging infrastructure make it clear : the future must incorporate flexibility from the start . The decisions made now will shape South Africa ’ s energy landscape for generations , and adding flexible solutions early on is key to making the most of upcoming investments in renewable power . According to a 2022 Wärtsilä power system model , combining 40GW of wind and solar with 9GW of flexible gas plants and 7GW of energy storage by 2032 could save South Africa USD26-billion while cutting emissions by 17 %.
Gas plays a crucial role in bridging the gap to a fully renewable future . While there is a lot of discussion about green fuels like hydrogen and ammonia eventually replacing traditional fossil fuels , the immediate need for flexibility makes gas the most practical short-term solution . It allows renewable energy systems to operate efficiently now , while also ensuring they are ready to transition to greener alternatives in the future .
The South African government ’ s updated Integrated Resource Plan 2023 ( IRP ) reinforces this point , including gas as a critical element of the country ’ s future energy strategy . Initiatives like the Gas Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme aim to add 2GW of flexible gas power to the national grid . For this plan to succeed and meet current system requirements , all parties involved need to remain focused on the need for flexibility , ensuring that the programme proceeds as intended .
Wärtsilä ’ s experience in other countries demonstrates the benefits of flexibility . In Mexico , we supplied two multi-fuel power plants , totalling 600MW , to the state-owned Comisión Federal de
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Electricidad ( CFE ). These plants primarily run on gas but can use liquid fuel as a backup , providing flexible power generation for the region . The Mexicali Oriente and Parque Industrial plants meet high demand during summer while providing grid-balancing services year-round . In El Salvador , we worked with Engineering , Procurement and Construction ( EPC ) to provide 378MW for Energía del Pacífico , the largest and most efficient power plant in the country . Powered by liquefied natural gas ( LNG ), it marks a significant milestone in Central America ' s energy landscape by offering clean , reliable , and flexible power .
So , how can South Africa build flexibility into its future power systems ? Wärtsilä proposes three critical steps to accelerate progress .
First , adopt technologies that complement renewables , such as battery storage for short-term fluctuations and flexible gas plants for larger changes . Gas engines that can start quickly and run efficiently at partial loads , paired with battery storage , offer an effective solution to manage renewable energy ’ s variability .
Second , overhaul the power trading system , reducing trading intervals to better match supply with demand . One-hour trading blocks ( at the time of writing ) are too slow to accommodate fluctuating renewable output . Shortening intervals to 5 or 15 minutes would better align supply with demand , improving
Simply expanding renewable capacity will not suffice without an adaptable grid .
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