African Mining January 2020 | Page 26

 COUNTRY IN FOCUS under the cloak of resource nationalism, and are claimed to uplift the people. But most of the time, the outcome is catastrophic for the very people they claim to represent,” Baissac told African Mining in an exclusive interview. communication (10.3%), the report said. The economy grew by 6.6% in the first quarter of 2019 and government expects full- year GDP growth to expand by 7.1% in 2019, up from 7% in 2018. A growing economy Political risk Despite its deteriorating economic position due to weaker external balances, falling forex reserves, and increasing public debt, Tanzania has enjoyed a high growth rate and it is expected that GDP will continue growing at between 6% to 7% per year in the next two to three years. Smith says Tanzania is a stable country with well-functioning public institutions and the president has been in office since 2015. However, Smith warns that there are many uncertainties and challenges. “Tanzania is currently ranked 137 on the ease of doing business index. The IMF, World Bank and UN all cite access to finance, corruption, inadequate infrastructure and unpredictable government policies (as was experienced in 2017) as the big obstacles to doing business in the country,” Smith says. Phiri and NKC African Economics regard the current political risk in Tanzania as low to moderate. However, Phiri expects the political climate to heat up in the run-up to the 2020 election, as criticism of government policies by opposition is expected to intensify. Over the short term, political risks could stem from isolated terrorist attacks by Islamist extremists (particularly in Zanzibar and in coastal areas) and an increase in opposition protest action. Negative spill-overs from instability in neighbouring Burundi and the DRC also pose significant downside risks over the short- to medium-term. Tanzania's economy expanded by 7.2% in the second quarter of 2019 compared with 6.1% in 2018. According to a Tanzania National Bureau of Statistics report released recently, the fast growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) in the April-June 2019 period was due to the improved performance of the construction, mining and communications sectors. “The largest share to GDP in the second quarter of 2019 was from tertiary activities which accounted to 41.5%, followed by primary activities by 32.9% and secondary activities had the least share of 25.7%, before adjustment for taxes,” the report said. Tanzania is the fourth largest gold producer in Africa after South Africa, Ghana and Mali. The country exported TZS3.44-trillion (USD1.50-billion) worth of gold in 2018. However, the country also hosts decent coal reserves and diamonds. Peak Resources is developing Ngualla, an impressive neodymium and praseodymium rare earth mine while several graphite projects are in the pipeline. According to Smith rare earth elements is making a major comeback. “This is mostly thanks to the Sino/US trade war where US and Europe are again looking for sources outside of China. Whether Ngualla will be brought into production or not is a different question, but it is getting funded,” Smith says. Meanwhile, several graphite mines are in different phases of development in Tanzania. Black Rock Mining published a Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) in July last year while Graphex Construction recorded the highest growth of 19.6% followed by mining and quarrying (17.2%) and information and Opportunities abound Ships continue hauling resources from the port of Dar Es Salaam. Tanzania’s economy continues growing despite recent political and economic difficulties. 24  African Mining  January 2020 www. africanmining.co.za