SA ECONOMIC INSIGHTS : ESKOM UPDATE – NOVEMBER TO DECEMBER 2024
AFRICAN BUZZ •
SA ECONOMIC INSIGHTS : ESKOM UPDATE – NOVEMBER TO DECEMBER 2024
synchronisation of Medupi Unit 4 is on track for completion by the end of the first quarter of 2025 , while Kusile Unit 6 is expected to be synchronised by the end of February 2025 . This will add about 1 500MW to Eskom ’ s electricity generation capacity .
By André Lourens , economist at Minerals Council SA
In December2 , Eskom ’ s average Energy Availability Factor ( EAF ) declined to 56.9 %, down from 60 % in November . Although South Africa has not experienced loadshedding since March 2024 , electricity demand dropped significantly in December as businesses and heavy industry paused operations for the festive season . Lower electricity demand allowed for increased planned maintenance activities ( see Figure 2 ), which , in turn , contributed to the lower EAF .
According to data released by Stats SA in January 2025 ( at the time of writing ), seasonally adjusted real electricity generation rose by 6.4 % year-on-year in November 2024 . On a month-to-month basis , seasonally adjusted production increased by 0.8 % compared to October 2024 . Year-to-date , at the time of writing , electricity generation was up 5.1 % compared to the same period in 2023 , and on 16 January 2024 was just 4.2 % below pre- COVID levels .
Eskom leveraged the lower demand amid the summer holiday period and the accompanied reduced industrial activity to conduct additional planned maintenance , with maintenance activities averaging + 8 000MW in December . These efforts aim to enhance the reliability of the generation fleet ahead of the winter period , which begins on 1 April 2025 . To support the increased maintenance and still meet the ( lower ) demand during peak periods , Eskom also made greater use of its open-cycle gas turbines ( OCGT ) during December .
Figure 4 below illustrates the trend in OCGT usage during December 2024 , with an average output of 351MW per hour . This represents a significant increase compared to October and November . As noted , Eskom relied more heavily on OCGTs to meet demand amidst heightened maintenance activities . Encouragingly , OCGT usage in the first two weeks of January 2025 had not exceeded December levels .
For calendar year 2024 , the EAF averaged 60.1 %, a notable improvement from an average of 55 % in 2023 . However , during the first two weeks of January 2025 , the EAF declined further to 57 %.
In December 2024 , the average total unplanned outages increased to 11 620MW , up from 10 319MW in November . However , this marks an improvement of 1 400MW compared to the same period a year earlier . Eskom attributed the increase to delays in returning units undergoing planned maintenance and the loss of generating capacity due to boiler tube leaks . In a positive development , Unit 2 of the Koeberg Nuclear Power Station in Cape Town was successfully synchronised to the grid ( adding 970MW ) at the end of December 2024 following extensive upgrades . Additionally , the
Lastly , it is worth noting that in December , the average electricity demand stood at 21 498MW , closely aligned with dispatchable generation , which averaged 21 473MW . Peak demand for the month reached 26 902MW . Overall , average demand was approximately 2 000MW lower than in November , primarily due to the seasonal slowdown of industrial activity during the festive period .
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