COUNTRY IN FOCUS
“The country has a stable democracy and boasts relative
institutional maturity. Expropriation risks in the mining sector is
also low with the country making strides in terms of regulatory
transparency on this front in recent years,” he adds.
Senegal is a historically peaceful country. It has only
experienced one failed coup in 1963 and power transfers
between heads of state have been smooth, even in the event
when an incumbent lost (2000 and 2012). However, O’Connor
warns that there are still the unresolved calls for secession
of the Casamence region by the armed militant group
Mouvement des Forces Democratiques de Casamence (MFDC)
which have existed since the early 1980s. The group has
stopped violent action and its activites have been weakened
by the loss of support from the Gambia, where ousted
president Yahya Jammeh used to provide financial assistance
to the group. Senegalese President Macky Sall has taken steps
to engage formally with the group, with the talks taking place
in October 2017 in Rome (Italy). Furthermore, Sall has promised
significant development assistance to the region and as a
result, has reduced secession claims.
Lingering challenges
Despite the obvious opportunities in Senegal, Ott says that
there are lingering infrastructure gaps that will impact on
transport and production costs. He adds that electricity supply
remains unreliable.
On the other hand, the Senegalese government has made a
genuine commitment to improve infrastructure constraints.
The focus has been specifically on improving the power
supply. In 2011, Senegal had an electricity production capacity
of 571 MW. By 2018, this had risen to 1141 MW. “With the
government’s aim to increase renewable energy production by
30% and the imminent production of natural gas by 2022, this
figure will see an increase,” says O’Connor.
According to Steenkamp, there is still a severe lack of highly
skilled and experienced staff. Senegal is able to source the
majority of the skilled personnel from neighbouring countries
with a more advanced and established mining sector but
is still reliant on expatriate consultants and contractors for
management and development.
“The country also has no analytical facilities, requiring a lengthy
process to have samples geochemically or metallurgically
analysed and tested. There is also a dire need for updated
mapping and elevation or terrain models. Due to the embargo
on the import on explosives in several West African countries,
that is not in effect in Senegal, international suppliers import
their products to Senegal, from where it can then be legally
sold and shipped to these countries,” Steenkamp adds.
About the contributors
• George Ott is a consultant at NKC African Economics
based in Paarl in the Western Cape Province of South
Africa. NKC African Economics specialises in providing
forecasts and insights for major African economies. Their
services provide a comprehensive analysis of immediate
and long-term prospects that will benefit organisations –
monitoring risks or opportunities for their operations or
investments in the continent.
• Tara O’Connor is the managing director at London based
Africa Risk Consulting (ARC) and Leonard Mbulle-Nziege
is the West Africa analyst at Africa Risk Consulting. ARC
www. africanmining.co.za
African Mining Publication
As in the case with most other African countries, transport
and logistics remain a challenge. Most projects are in remote
locations, with little to no supporting infrastructure. “A
focus area of the Senegalese government is to revitalise and
refurbish the French-era railway system. The ports are also
seeking financial support to upgrade their facilities to handle
rail and road connected logistics,” says Steenkamp.
SENEGAL: THE POLITICAL
OUTLOOK AND RISKS
By Africa Risk Consulting (ARC) managing director Tara
O’Connor and West Africa analyst Leonard Mbulle-Nziege
President Macky Sall won the February presidential election
quite comfortably in the first round, earning 58.26% of the
vote and is firmly in control. However, this is Sall’s second and
last term as stipulated by the constitution. Sall is yet to groom
a successor and if he decides to run for a third presidential
term, he might face the same fate as his predecessor
Abdoulaye Wade whom political protesters forced to abandon
hopes for a third term.
Nonetheless, the opposition might become a real force,
especially with the release from prison of former Dakar
mayor Khalifa Sall (no relation to the president) and the
possible rehabilitation of former minister Karim Wade’s
personal rights, which would allow him to run for political
office. Firebrand opposition MP, Ousmane Sonko could also
make waves following his third place finish in the February
elections. The local elections which are set for 2020 or 2021
will be a barometer of how these individuals might position
themselves within the Senegalese political landscape. Political
violence is extremely rare in Senegal and even in the event
that electoral contests are highly contested, we should not
expect any such acts to occur.
New risks include a possible spill over effect of extremist
violent group activities in neighbouring countries such as
Burkina Faso, Mali, Mauritania and Niger. These countries have
been subjected to attacks by suspected jihadists groups such
as Al Qaeda in the Maghreb/Sahel, Islamic State of West Africa,
Azawad and numerous splinter groups. The borders between
these countries are porous and while Senegal has not been
subjected to such attacks and has a robust defence force,
there is a risk of an event similar to the 2016 Grand Bassam
attacks in Cote d’Ivoire in which armed Islamist extremists
opened fire on Ivoirians and foreign beach-goers.
has been facilitating the entry and successful operation
of organisations across the African continent for over 14
years and has facilitated clean and long-term investment
in Africa. The above information is drawn from ARC's Africa
country information service, ARC Briefing, which now
covers 22 countries and is available on subscription.
• Dr Nicolaas C Steenkamp has a decade and a half of
post-qualification experience in the geological and
geotechnical industry. He has been involved in a variety
of activities ranging from exploration, geochemistry,
geological and geotechnical, desktop studies, due
diligence to EPCM contracts and related feasibility studies
offered by Bowline Professional Services.
African Mining
African Mining February 2020
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