African Mining April 2020 | Page 3

COMMENT  n L w a eo ou w - E eo ditor  @L nL ou DON’T RED-FLAG EXPLORATION COMPANIES I nvesting in a greenfields exploration project in a remote region of Africa is a long-term play and a high-risk undertaking. Financial institutions and individuals who have the capital to pour money into such ventures, are fully aware (or, at least, should be) of the risks involved, and that debt would be a constant companion on the balance sheet for at least the first three to five years of operation. Volatility is inextricably linked to mining, and companies plan for peaks and troughs, so it shouldn’t be a major risk. I find it fascinating that certain ‘analysts’ and websites warn investors about projects that are ‘unprofitable’ and ‘does not have enough runway’ in the first year of operation. Remember, for between five and ten years, from the moment an ore body is discovered, to bringing the mine into production, an exploration company will naturally burn through cash reserves and the costs will head north as there is nothing to sell. It is not like setting up a shop and immediately start paying back the initial capex. Once the mine starts running at full tilt, it normally takes another three years to settle the debt. Is it fair to expect a remote mine in a remote part of Africa to be profitable in its first year of operation? Yes, the balance sheet doesn’t look good and there is a possibility that shareholders will get diluted, but hell, they knew what they were in for when they signed up, didn’t they? discovery and then building a mine from scratch, especially in Africa. There are only a handful of companies that have done so successfully. Financial institutions are risk-averse and getting funded for a greenfield project, especially in high-risk jurisdictions, is near impossible. Once a company has managed to raise the necessary funds it needs to prove, beyond reasonable doubt, that the project is viable. Even then, the ore body remains a big unknown and it takes several years before the mine can start shipping out product, pay off all its debt and become profitable. During development, the company naturally starts accumulating debt, often raising more funds to cover its operational costs and in the process diluting its shareholders. "There are scant examples of junior mining companies making a great discovery and then building a mine from scratch, especially in Africa. To advance a mining project from early stage exploration to full production is the exception rather than the rule. Most junior mining companies hope to prove up a large reserve and then offload the project to a major with the necessary capital to back up further development. There are scant examples of junior mining companies making a great www. africanmining.co.za African Mining Publication Existing investors are well-aware of these risks. The ability to construct a mine in extremely difficult circumstances should at least say something about management’s ability, resilience and determination. Moreover, the mine’s ability to create jobs and its positive impact on community development, should also be considered. To dismiss ‘unprofitable’ projects in the first year of full production is unfair to brave exploration companies, who have to ward off a deluge of challenges every day. Exploration companies that develop new mines should be celebrated, not red flagged. They wouldn’t do so if they didn’t believe in the ore body.  Leon African Mining African Mining  April 2020  1