African Mining African Mining Outlook 2020: Mining Indaba Preview | Page 5

MINING INDABA  storage minerals – we need to invest in research and development (R&D) so that the minute this industry starts to grow, we are right there following the growth. For me battery minerals are the next frontier, and I think it’s going to happen sooner than we expect. South Africa has faced strident calls for the nationalisation of the mining and natural resources sector, which, in my view, is the final step along the spectrum of resource nationalism. Recent events across Africa – including Tanzania, Zambia, and the DRC – particularly with the amendments to the mining Laws in these countries, are strong indicators that resource nationalism is sweeping the African continent. Calls for nationalisation (as in South Africa), and the measures that are implemented from time to time in support of resource nationalism (particularly, the changes to the mining laws), tracks very closely with two phenomena; namely upcoming elections (mainly as part of the election rhetoric and promises to gain support), and the state of the economy at any point in time (the worse off the economy, the greater the socio-economic demand for jobs, services, commercial opportunities, and, ultimately, participation in the actual or perceived wealth generated by mining operations). There are a broad range of measures along the spectrum of resource nationalism, including the implementation of trade and other tariffs, establishing restrictions on procurement (goods and services) indigenisation and ownership requirements, increased royalties, and restrictions on the export of certain minerals, or, at the very least, the export of raw minerals, aimed at encouraging local beneficiation. The most recent example of this, outside of Africa, was the announcement of Indonesia to enforce a complete ban on the export of raw nickel ore from 1 January 2020, two years earlier than initially planned. The purpose is to secure supplies of raw nickel ore for numerous smelters that are under construction, and the drive to increase local processing capacity. South Africa has stopped short of nationalisation, but has made provision (and created the mechanism) for outright State ownership if the State wants to do so (it can apply for and be granted prospecting and mining rights), and has actively created the legislative framework for resource nationalism in various forms including changing the mineral ownership regime from private ownership to State custodianship of minerals of behalf of the citizens, with the right-holder only being given a right to the minerals under the prospecting and mining rights; implementation of a standalone Mining Royalty Act, which also casts the collection net a lot wider; implementation of ‘windfall’, and ‘super’ taxes which impact the Mining and Natural Resources African Mining Publication re in ar Warren, the past few years have seen an increasing populism and swing towards resource nationalism in many parts of Africa, with issues in Zambia, Tanzania, and the DRC, to name but a few. Do you expect this trend to continue into 2020 and beyond, and do you foresee any major new trend emerging? If so, what will they be? h . Warren Beech, partner: Head of Mining and Infrastructure at Eversheds-Sutherland talks about regulations and resource nationalism in the sector. www. africanmining.co.za nd REGULATIONS er la to be left out. We want to make sure that we are participating in the value chain. We need to start investing in the research and development now to start manufacturing batteries – components for cell phones across that entire spectrum of producibles and n B e ec h Pa r t n e o r: H e a d f M in Sector, and the implementation of indigenisation Laws (in the case of South Africa this is Mining Charter 3, which requires compliance with specific targets relating to black ownership, procurement of goods and services, and diversity). Changes to mining laws in other African countries, including, most recently, Mali, are supportive of resource nationalism, regardless of the terminology that is used. Most, if not all African countries that have significant mineral resources, face calls for outright nationalisation, and for more stringent resource nationalism as their economies fluctuate, and the political landscape and political players change. The reality of attracting investment often challenges this position – more mature governments typically implement the resource nationalism measures incrementally to ensure that investors are not scared off, but later become locked in by the investments that have been made. Commodity cycles also impact on the implementation of resource nationalism measures – the better the cycle, and the better the price, the higher the demand from citizens to benefit from this, regardless of whether the uptick is sustainable or not. Increased calls for resource nationalism are also part of a broader anti-west anti-colonial past. Fears that there is a new wave of colonialism through economic investment, are being explained away, on the basis that ‘this time it is different’ (many African countries are however realising that the investment from countries such as China and Russia, are coming with its own ‘golden handcuffs’). The China / Russia (and to a lesser extent, the other BRICS partners) investment potential and dynamic is being used to play off the ‘traditional’ western investment and investors, and to drive up the costs of acquiring prospecting and mining rights, in other words getting more, ostensibly to meet socio-economic demand from citizens; induce more commitment to infrastructure development at the cost of the investor, including, for example, the ‘open access’ use of infrastructure by multiple / ancillary sectors such as agriculture, and obtain support for policy and regulatory change, desired by the relevant political party in power. Representatives of various African companies have, on several occasions, indicated that “if you don’t like what we are offering, we will get Russia or China to invest”. Investment or potential investment from Russia or China seems to give the African African Mining African Mining  January 2020  31