ASEAN COMMUNITY OF ENTREPRENEURS
OPINION
observable evidence of the pull and
power of statehood which drive and
permeate domestic policies and
international relations.
At the same time, forces of
globalisation integrate nation states
and disrupt their condominium
within and without. Social media
enabled
by
the
information
communications technology (ICT)
revolution creates a marketplace
for good and bad ends. Massive
global financial flows riding on
that technology can make or break
economies, depending on whether
they are coming in or going out.
FREE TRADE
Free trade is a good thing when you
are gaining, not so good when you
lose. Early proponents of free trade
have become more resistant to it
and those then deemed protectionist
now are its champions.
America lost five million
manufacturing jobs from free
trade between 2000 and 2015.
China’s gained from the time of
its membership of World Trade
Organisation (WTO) in 2001 and
peaked at 234 million in 2012,
and now has to make its own
structural adjustments.
50
But from this blue-collar jobs
hit, there will be more to come in
the white-collar sector. The World
Bank expects China to have 200
million college graduates by 2030 –
more than the entire US workforce.
American dominance in finance,
medicine and IT will be under threat.
Meanwhile, massive trade and
investment areas are being pursued,
well over and above the AEC. The
Trans-Pacific Partnership and the
Regional Comprehensive Economic
Partnership are not incompatible with
the AEC, but they offer an affiliation
beyond it, which would challenge the
shopping and priority list of ASEAN
member states.
Then there is the Free Trade
Area of the Asia-Pacific and even the
Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment
Partnership which will challenge
ASEAN member states further.
China has its One-Belt One
Road project – which is not just talk –
but with financial firepower to make
it happen such as through the Asian
Infrastructure Investment Bank.
ASEAN COMMUNITY OF ENTREPRENEURS | ISSUE 2 : 2016
All this is intended to
establish centrality, either for
America or China. For as long
as this intense competition
does not break out into conflict,
there are benefits which ASEAN
member states will want to latch
on to which could place them in
different competitive camps.
This does not mean the AEC
is of no importance. But what
we must remember that all its
member states face complex
and complicated challenges
from globalisation and great
power rivalry.
ASEAN is a significant circle,
level, layer and platform but
its existence does not exempt
member states from facing such
challenges and having to make
choices – more frequently as a
nation state than as a community.
Fact of life. Good to
cooperate and aspire. There are
huge benefits to come. But it is
also a dynamic world out there.
Let us not be starry-eyed.
This article appeared in The Star newspaper on 4 June 2016. Tan Sri Munir Majid
is currently the ASEAN Business Advisory Council (ASEAN-BAC) Malaysia chairman.