ACE Magazine: Issue 2 / 2016 ACE Magazine: Issue 2 / 2016 | Page 52

ASEAN COMMUNITY OF ENTREPRENEURS OPINION observable evidence of the pull and power of statehood which drive and permeate domestic policies and international relations. At the same time, forces of globalisation integrate nation states and disrupt their condominium within and without. Social media enabled by the information communications technology (ICT) revolution creates a marketplace for good and bad ends. Massive global financial flows riding on that technology can make or break economies, depending on whether they are coming in or going out. FREE TRADE Free trade is a good thing when you are gaining, not so good when you lose. Early proponents of free trade have become more resistant to it and those then deemed protectionist now are its champions. America lost five million manufacturing jobs from free trade between 2000 and 2015. China’s gained from the time of its membership of World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 2001 and peaked at 234 million in 2012, and now has to make its own structural adjustments. 50 But from this blue-collar jobs hit, there will be more to come in the white-collar sector. The World Bank expects China to have 200 million college graduates by 2030 – more than the entire US workforce. American dominance in finance, medicine and IT will be under threat. Meanwhile, massive trade and investment areas are being pursued, well over and above the AEC. The Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership are not incompatible with the AEC, but they offer an affiliation beyond it, which would challenge the shopping and priority list of ASEAN member states. Then there is the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific and even the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership which will challenge ASEAN member states further. China has its One-Belt One Road project – which is not just talk – but with financial firepower to make it happen such as through the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. ASEAN COMMUNITY OF ENTREPRENEURS | ISSUE 2 : 2016 All this is intended to establish centrality, either for America or China. For as long as this intense competition does not break out into conflict, there are benefits which ASEAN member states will want to latch on to which could place them in different competitive camps. This does not mean the AEC is of no importance. But what we must remember that all its member states face complex and complicated challenges from globalisation and great power rivalry. ASEAN is a significant circle, level, layer and platform but its existence does not exempt member states from facing such challenges and having to make choices – more frequently as a nation state than as a community. Fact of life. Good to cooperate and aspire. There are huge benefits to come. But it is also a dynamic world out there. Let us not be starry-eyed. This article appeared in The Star newspaper on 4 June 2016. Tan Sri Munir Majid is currently the ASEAN Business Advisory Council (ASEAN-BAC) Malaysia chairman.