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South African Automotive Week South Africa’s automotive components industry in international comparative perspective: Lessons from a global benchmarking study – Prof Justin Barnes P rofessor Barnes, who is chairman of Benchmarking and Manufacturing Analysts SA (Pty) Ltd, began his presentation by referring to a study conducted a decade ago by Timothy Sturgeon and Richard Florida which showed that there are five sets of features and trends that distinguish the automotive industry, and which indicate the viability of the industry in each geographical set. The first set is developed economies which have increasingly higher costs but because of the size and establishment of the industry, remain viable – obviously America and Europe. The second set is developing economies that are located next to large developed markets – such as the Visegrád Group, comprising Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia. Third, are the sets of developing economies located in a regional bloc, forming a significant market and strong export dynamics - Mercosur is a good example, as it is a sub-regional bloc comprising Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Venezuela, plus associate countries Chile, Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru, and observer countries New Zealand and Mexico. The fourth set are large developing economies that are growing at a fast pace, based purely on their large populations – clearly China and India. And then there is the fifth set, and the two anomalies – South Africa and Australia. Neither of these countries’ automotive industries is viable without high levels of protectionism, and Sturgeon and Florida predicted that these anomalies would become casualties of globalisation. And as per Prof Roos’ presentation, the prediction has become true in the case of Australia. So this leaves us with South Africa. Will the industry survive, and what can we learn from both the Australian experience and the global benchmarking study? Because of our location, and the disadvantages accruing from this geographical disadvantage, South Africa needs to be as cost competitive as possible, and the global benchmarking study does not make for encouraging reading. Using Thailand as a benchmark, South Africa is 9% less cost competitive, with the major culprits being labour and inventory costs, ameliorated somewhat by government incentives. Productivity is another negative, with South Africa losing ground every year to our competitors. Capital expenditure, training initiatives and operating profit are also areas of concern. Barnes points out that the root cause of non-competitiveness is the fragile supply chain, with component manufacturers more reliant than the OEMs on labour, and with our relatively expensive and unproductive labour force, this creates the situation where component manufacturers are performing according to OEM demands in most things except cost. A by-product of this problem is tha t South Africa is assembling, but not innovating. Barnes says that there are four areas that need to be addressed when it comes to the competitiveness of South Africa’s automotive industry. Firstly productivity, which can be addressed via improved work organisation and a laser type focus on becoming leaner; secondly localisation – we need more lower tier component suppliers, as currently only 20% is value added; thirdly skills development, which is a perennial issue; and finally technology upgrades, which is addressed through increased capital investment. Other issues that need to be addressed revolve around economies of scale – our domestic market is too small, and we need to grow it to at least 1 million vehicles per annum; we need 250 000 unit plants to get to a 50% improvement in scale economics; and we need to up our local content from 40% to 60%. Ending with an upbeat note, Professor Barnes says that South Africa is in a much better space than Australia, but we cannot afford to be complacent. Sub-Saharan Africa is also a massive opportunity, with an ever increasing middle class aspiring to buy new cars. This will require African countries refining and aligning their regulations and homologation frameworks, and restricting the importation of second hand and “grey” imports. And it would help to bring down the South African cost of living index across the board. We may think that our living costs are reasonable, but the fact is that South Africans have an expatriate lifestyle, paying for private schools, private medical aid, private security, private transport, and other unnecessary costs conferred to us by a dysfunctional government. TRADE SHOW • MATCH MAKING • CONFERENCES COCKTAIL NETWORKING FUNCTION • SITE TOURS WWW.SAAW.CO.ZA GALLAGHER CONVENTION CENTRE • MIDRAND • JOHANNESBURG GAUTENG PROVINCE • SOUTH AFRICA | words in action 52 november 2014