FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS
THE TIPPING POINT
COMMENTS FROM THE PHOENIX:
PHOENIX
In the previous issue of aBr, we kicked off with an article from the September 2008 issue, which was titled“ The Automobile of the Future”, and was under the strapline THE TIPPING POINT, and based on a paper presented by Klaus Langer of the Munich Advisory Group, at the SA Auto Strategies Conference in August 2008. Space precluded us completing the article, so here is the second half, picking up from the contention that the automotive industry had to move away from its carbon emitting ways.
The result of a century’ s abuse is manifold( ahem), including rocketing fuel prices, government intervention on environmentally unfriendly vehicles, and more shocks to come. Klaus continues with this theme, saying that the car market was already collapsing. In Europe, car sales were down by 12 % in June 2008, and in the USA it is worse, with blood on the floor with a 40 % reduction on some big models, and South Africa has not escaped this bloodletting. Optimists may take heart at the cyclical nature of the industry, and some are saying that everything should be back to normal in a couple of years’ time, but Klaus doubts this very much. He says that in the 25 years that he has been in the industry, this is a totally new dynamic. He predicts the end of the internal combustion engine within 15 years, and he anticipates completely new engines emerging in the next three to five years.
FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS
The manufacturers, despite themselves, are going to be dragged kicking and screaming into this new era. In a very short space of time we are going to see whole new cars, designed from scratch, utilising significantly different power trains, and lightweight materials. Klaus is looking forward to this era, as he has confidence that the industry shall respond positively and proactively to the new realities. The initial signs are promising, with examples of innovation already on the showroom floor, and very exciting developments around concept cars. More on this in future articles in this series, suffice to say that Klaus sees the Paris Motor Show as a great litmus test. From the consumer angle, seismic shifts are going to take place. Vehicles parked on the driveway will continue to make statements, but the raison d ' etre will have changed significantly. Size will still count, and emissions will still dominate pub talk, but the whole bang shoot will have been turned on its head. Large gas guzzlers will be considered infra dig and a sign of ignorance or even stupidity. Small and eco-friendly shall become a shining beacon of responsibility and maturity, and most importantly, of intelligence.
THE TIPPING POINT
All this will happen, sooner rather than later, because we have reached the tipping point. There is going to a substantial move away from fossil fuels. Even BP, whose very existence depends on oil, is now espousing the concept of Beyond Petroleum. The tipping point requires a total change of mindset, and its time has arrived.
COMMENTS FROM THE PHOENIX:
Well, with the benefit of hindsight, Klaus may have been a little bit premature, and maybe a decade or two out, but his prophesies are now coming to fruition, with EV’ s now close to ascendency. Petrol hangs in there, thanks to hybrids, and a stubborn rear-guard action by the OEMs, but the writing is starting to play out on the wall. As Pink Floyd would say,“ We don’ t need no educasion.”
SEPTEMBER 2026 3 WORDS IN ACTION