Hyper-localised OEMs
One of the most prolific automotive engineers and scientists of his generation has a radical idea: cities should build their own cars.
New vehicle sales drive everything downstream in the automotive aftermarket. Without steady new-vehicle sales, there’ s no future service and maintenance schedule, which stimulates demand for automotive aftermarket services.
Analyse new vehicle sales data from the last decade, and the numbers are clear. The global automotive market has peaked. The new-vehicle market peaked in 2017 and has not increased since.
Ride-hailing services, urban traffic saturation, parking costs, and private vehicle taxes have constrained new-vehicle sales growth. Even in wealthy automotive markets, families are choosing to own one primary luxury vehicle and use ride-hailing or on-demand mobility services for the balance of their mobility needs.
With new car sales slowly decreasing over time, does that mean a shrinking automotive aftermarket in the near- and mid-term future? Possibly not. Because fleet sales could be the new growth segment.
When automotive aftermarket business development managers think of fleet sales, they usually think of rentals, commercial truck fleets, and light delivery vehicles. They never really think in terms of a private family vehicle. But a bold new transportation and manufacturing strategy could change that.
HYPER-LOCAL MANUFACTURING
Former Chrysler and Waymo R & D and technology specialist Christopher Borroni-Bird has more experience with advanced vehicle and mobility design than most. In his latest book,‘ Sustainable and Affordable Mobility for All: Putting the Heart Back into Technology’ Borroni-Bird shares powerful ideas on how to secure the future of domestic automotive manufacturing through hyper-localisation, rather than an export-oriented production strategy.
With extensive experience in Chinese vehicle design, Borroni- Bird has explored the idea that fleets will increasingly drive future passenger-car demand. Chinese cities are heavily invested in the country’ s automotive OEMs and suppliers to drive economic growth and employment.
Borroni-Bird imagines a future automotive market in which cities will invest in localised automotive production and supply chains. Not assembling vehicles for export or even regional markets, but only for the city’ s own passenger car fleet needs.
These hyper-localised city vehicles will also differ in configuration, because they won’ t be overengineered for long-distance driving or high-speed crash safety. That means smarter packaging, smaller dimensions, easier parking and lower costs. It also has profound implications for the automotive aftermarket.
Outside of Cape Town and Bloemfontein, several major South African cities have established automotive production and a deep, supporting supply chain. Durban, East London, Johannesburg, Pretoria, and Gqeberha could theoretically all develop a future municipal passenger vehicle fleet from their existing automotive supply chains and skills bases.
WORDS IN ACTION 10 OCTOBER 2026