The future of diesel engines
For transport, Africa runs on diesel. But where is global diesel powertrain policy really heading?
Diesel drives South Africa. Marketing people might imagine that all the vanguard‘ new energy’ vehicle technologies are going to overwhelm the local market, creating the momentum for an unprecedented powertrain transition. But that’ s not representative of the facts.
The minibus taxi industry moves more people than any other mode of transport in South Africa. And more than half of all minibus taxis are diesel-powered. Toyota Hilux has been South Africa’ s best-selling vehicle model for more than four decades. And nearly all new Hilux bakkies sold are dieselpowered.
Then there’ s the long-haul truck segment. Those heavyduty tractors haul our road freight, mining products and agricultural goods. And don’ t forget all those mixers, dumpers, and earth-moving equipment that work offhighway, building the crucial infrastructure that South Africa needs. Nearly every one of those trucks and construction vehicles is powered by diesel.
It is true that in some countries, tax changes have shrunk the diesel passenger car market. The United Kingdom is a notable example, where the diesel vehicle market share collapsed by 90 % over a decade. But globally, emission regulations are not progressing at the implementation rate that politicians and policymakers promised.
CHANGING GLOBAL PRIORITIES
America is shelving much of the greenhouse gas research that has driven its passenger car and commercial vehicle powertrain policy and incentives for the last three decades. The influential US CAFE emissions standards, which had forced American powertrain engineers at Cummins, Ford, and GM to create smaller, more efficient engines, essentially no longer exist.
Germany’ s technically astute car companies, which had all promised to exit diesel powertrains and transition completely to electric by 2030, are now reintegrating diesel engine options into several model lines. And exiting some of the future EV powertrain investments.
But what about the Chinese? Having mastered industrialscale advanced battery chemistry like no other nation, the Chinese absolutely dominate the market for advanced electric and hybrid powertrains. But don’ t think they aren’ t working on diesel.
In markets like Australia, the Middle East and Africa, Chinese car and truck companies know that diesel is the powertrain currency. And that’ s why they are now investing and developing a range of advanced diesel engines for their next-generation bakkies, SUVs, and trucks.
Diesel particulate filters and exhaust gas recirculation units require high operating temperatures to remove soot buildup, which can dramatically degrade the performance of sophisticated diesel engines. Those required operating temperatures can’ t happen in bumper-to-bumper traffic or even in free-flowing urban driving.
Emission regulations systems need constant highway speeds to reach the temperatures required to perform regenerative soot burn-off. And that is an issue in South Africa, where most next-generation diesel engines will continue to be used in severe traffic-driving cycles.
WORDS IN ACTION 36 APRIL 2026