The future of manual gearboxes
In 2013, fewer than a quarter of new vehicles sold in South Africa had automatic transmissions. Today, it’ s more than half the market.
South Africa’ s overwhelming adoption of automatic transmission is not unique to the local market. Globally, automatic transmissions have long dominated the world’ s wealthiest automotive market. In North America, manual gearboxes account for less than 2 % of total new vehicle sales.
What has driven the dominance of automatic transmissions? Has it been customer demand and driving conditions? It’ s a mix of both, with some legislative influence.
Huge advances in automatic transmission technology, with better control electronics and smoother shifting dynamics, mean that the latest generation of automatic transmissions is technically superior to manual gearboxes. Even an expert manual gearbox driver cannot match the fuel consumption attainable with an automatic transmission.
Then there’ s the traffic issue. As global urbanisation increases, traffic is becoming increasingly intense for city residents. In the demanding morning and afternoon commuter traffic, a manual gearbox is incredibly tiring to drive. And as that fatigue factor increases, drivers can start slipping or riding the clutch in heavy traffic, which can lead to premature wear.
Automatic transmissions are much easier to drive in traffic, which is why they are the default choice for most drivers in cities.
The safety issue
As crash-safety testing and regulations become stricter each year, automatic transmissions give manufacturers a better chance of achieving the highest crashtest safety rating. Compared to a manual gearbox.
With only two pedals in the footwell, instead of three, an automatic transmission vehicle has significantly reduced frontal crash risk because there isn’ t a third pedal that can injure the driver. Automatic transmission vehicles can’ t be stalled, making them safer for novice drivers in hilly urban areas.
Emergency braking is another driving dynamic where automatic transmissions have an advantage over manual gearboxes. How? During emergency braking, many drivers inadvertently dip the clutch pedal a millisecond before engaging the brake pedal. This is because there is a subconscious fear of stalling the engine during an emergency braking event. That slight delay between engaging the clutch pedal and then the brake pedal can be disastrous – and is often the margin between a safe stopping distance and a collision.
When drivers need to make an emergency stop in an automatic transmission vehicle, they engage the brake pedal without hesitation. Improving the emergency response time and reducing braking distances.
The future trends and transformations in the South African transmission market mean that aftermarket specialists will need to support a service pipeline for more torqueconverter automatics, continuously variable transmissions, and dualclutch gearboxes. And fewer manual gearboxes.
WORDS IN ACTION 22 MAY 2026