NEW CAR MARKET still nowhere near 2006 levels
The South African new-car market had a remarkably strong 2025, with total sales of 596 818 units. Calculate the yearon-year percentages, and 2025 was a 15.7 % larger new-car market than 2024.
Affordability has long been a concern for the South African new-vehicle market. With increased electronic, infotainment, and safety content, even entry-level cars are priced beyond the means of most South Africans. So how did the market perform so well in 2025 if affordability and broad credit availability are issues for most buyers?
Much of the new-car sales growth in 2025 was driven by a flood of Chinese products, delivering models with remarkable specifications and features at prices significantly below those of equivalent legacy European, Korean and Japanese models.
The South African new-car market might be positioned to exceed 600 000 units in 2026, but historical data remains problematic. And symbolic. It ' s 20 years since South Africa set its all-time automotive market record of 714 340 in 2006. And that number is very important because, back in 2006, South Africa had a population of only 47 million, whereas it ' s now 63 million. That proves that the new-car market not grown in real or absolute terms over 20 years.
After the 2006 record sales year, there was industry talk of South Africa becoming a‘ million car’ market. This clearly never happened, but a lot of strategic and industrial planning was done in the years after 2006, with the vision that the domestic market would keep growing and become a million-car market.
Symbolically, the 2026 market will be defining for many reasons. It will be compared to the record-setting year of 2006, for historical reasons. And several legacy OEMs with South African production plants are questioning the responsiveness to incentives outlined in the government’ s 2035 Automotive Masterplan.
Another issue is the affordability question. Back in 2006, South African buyers could choose from several locally produced, entry-level vehicles – Toyota Tazz, Ford’ s Bantam, Opel’ s Corsa Ute, Nissan’ s 1400, VW Citi Golf and the Vivo. Today, only VW, with its Polo Vivo, produces a South African-made car at an affordable price.
The domestic market has become increasingly import-dependent, with a large share of vehicles sourced from India and China. This was unimaginable when automotive strategists and government planning committees strategised about the future strength of local production and domestic off-take, after that record-breaking sales year in 2006.
Twenty years later, those decisions might require reconsideration, as local buyers are choosing affordable imports, often with lower safety ratings, because of a lack of entry-level, locally made alternatives.
JANUARY | FEBRUARY 2026 31 WORDS IN ACTION