AAA White Paper The political economy of informal events, 2030 | Page 95

Sadly, in recent times, various parts of the country have seen a
palpable rise in knife crime and gang violence among youth, as well
as violence on the part of those who have problems to do with mental
health. London in particular has suffered a major increase in the
murder rate.
Each of these developments has had devastating consequences,
and, put together, the trends represent an ill wind. But how much
are they really to do with informal events? In Britain, general
forebodings about the future have grown. So, however much they
are justified or keenly felt, these forebodings can all too easily
morph into visceral apprehensions about events in the present.
4. CRIME STATISTICS: HANDLE WITH CARE!
Informal events, particularly those around musical sub-genres like
grime, dubstep and drill, have had plenty of bad publicity. Yet while
some legitimate worries surround crimes and misdemeanours at
such events, there’s also a need to delve carefully into wider statistics
about crime in the UK – both at national and at local level. That way we
can begin to establish the real salience of event-related crime.
First, in Chart 21 on the facing page, we present data on the
monthly number of recorded crimes for England and Wales between
the start of 2014 and the end of 2018. In each year, Chart 21 tints in
grey a five-month interlude lasting from May to October – the months
in which most informal events take place.
We have excluded burglary, robbery and shoplifting from the
chart, because these crimes are not directly related to outdoor
informal events. Still, to give an unvarnished picture of informal
events, we have included: anti-social behaviour (ASB), violent crime,
criminal damage and arson, ‘other theft’, vehicle crime, public order
offences, drug offences, theft from the person, ‘other' crime, bike
theft, and weapons offences.
Well: Chart 21 shows that, between 2014 and 2018, several categories
of recorded crime showed only modest changes in their incidence.
In the case of ASB, the overall trend was sharply downward, and
incidents involving drugs also showed a decline. However, especially
with violence, public order, theft from the person, 'other' crime and
weapons offences, the plots show that incidents have risen.
Overlaid on that picture, a certain acceleration in the monthly
number of recorded crime does appear to take place in the May-
October period. With ASB, violence, 'other theft' and public order
offences, peaks tend to be reached around July. By contrast, with
criminal damage and arson, as well as vehicular crime, the key month
seems to be October.
So how much of this seasonal effect, which is appreciable but
not enormous, is the fault of outdoor informal events? Perhaps a
little – although a well-managed informal event gets police out in the
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Chart 21
Source: Home Office
data, derived from
data.police.uk using
UK Crime Stats