AAA White Paper The political economy of informal events, 2030 | Page 44

1. FORECASTS FOR THE UK EVENTS MARKET
In events, as elsewhere, conducting balanced research on the future
is the right thing to do. Of course, like many other institutions in
today’s Britain, forecasting – particularly economic forecasting – has
been widely discredited. Yet that doesn’t mean that informal events
should just ignore the predictions that are out there in the public
domain, or that the sector should avoid making its own.
For 2018, the research firm Mintel estimates that the UK music
concert and festivals market alone was worth £2.46bn – and that it’s
continuing to grow, fuelled by more events, higher ticket prices and
more music tourists from overseas. However, Mintel also argues:
“Some fans are beginning to cut back on the number of music events they
attend. This will become more noticeable if ticket prices continue to rise. As
the amount of festivals increases, so does the experience consumers expect
from them. A good line-up may not be enough to draw in audiences as
demand for additional activities grows. The rise in focus on health and fitness
means many events are introducing elements of wellness and adventure.”
In music concerts and festivals, there are certainly no grounds for
complacency. Helen Fricker, Mintel’s associate director for leisure,
rightly describes the marketplace for such events as ‘increasingly
crowded’. And the same applies to the NTE, and to performing arts
and sports events in general.
Thinking more broadly, there are three kinds of upheaval that
professionals in informal events need to be vigilant about:
1. A serious crash on the world economy
2. Major social or political instability overseas
3. The spread of threats to national security.
After the May 2017 terrorist attack on the Ariana Grande concert at the
Manchester Arena, independent companies in informal events need
to be alert to what further incidents of this kind might bring – not
least, in terms of the overall social and political climate for holding
events. That is only realistic. However, so long as the three factors
outlined above remain absent, the long-term future of informal
music events in the UK looks pretty good.
The research firm Statista forecasts online sales of music events
for 2019 and 2023. In the bar-chart on the facing page, we have added
our own, purely indicative estimates for the year 2030.
Even then, sales online may only take the vast majority of music
event sales, not all of them. And if forecasts of such sales are accurate
to within, say, a $1-2bn, those for purchaser numbers, the penetration
of national markets and spending are much more prone to error.
Yet whatever the caprice of economic and political developments
at home and abroad, increased public participation in events
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