a trip to the unknown - May 2014 | Page 25

Kepler-186f's axial tilt (obliquity) is likely very small, in which case it wouldn't have tilt-induced seasons as Earth and Mars do. Its orbit is probably close to circular,[12] so it will also lack eccentricity-induced seasonal changes like those ofMars. However, the axial tilt could be larger (about 23 degrees) if another undetected nontransiting planet orbits between it and Kepler-186e; planetary formation simulations have shown that the presence of at least one additional planet in this region is likely. If such a planet exists, it cannot be much more massive than Earth as it would then cause orbital instabilities.

Kepler-186f's location within the habitable zone does not ensure it is habitable; this is also dependent on its atmospheric characteristics, which are unknown. Kepler-186f is too distant, however, for its atmosphere to be analyzed by existing telescopes (e.g., NESSI) or next-generation instruments such as the James Webb Space Telescope. A simple climate model, in which the planet's inventory of volatiles is restricted to nitrogen, carbon dioxide and water and clouds are not accounted for, suggests that the planet's surface temperature would be above 273 K (0 deg C) if at least 0.5 to 5 bars of CO2 is present in its atmosphere, for assumed N2 partial pressures ranging from 10 bar to zero, respectively