2020/21 Budget Communication 2020-21 Budget Communication - Final (1)-compresse | Page 20

Strategy Report a Fiscal Adjustment Plan, which envisioned a return to compliance with a fiscal
deficit ratio of 0.5 percent within five years, or by FY2024/25.
However, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has presented yet another exceptional
circumstance for the Government, which now calls for a new Fiscal Adjustment Plan.
Notwithstanding, it is especially challenging to predict the economic impact of this crisis, and
how it would affect our fiscal outcomes, as developments change on a day to day basis. As such,
the Government will be in a position to provide a more detailed analysis in its upcoming 2020
Fiscal Strategy Report, when additional information is available on the performance of the real
economy.
Mr. Speaker,
The fiscal outlook for 2020/21 is framed within the context of the global pandemic, and the lagged
impact of Hurricane Dorian, which would have been built into our forecasts at the time of the first
Adjustment Plan. However, in the following years, our projections are based on the assumed pace
of economic recovery, in conjunction with the Government’s medium-term socio-economic
agenda.
As mentioned earlier, in the aftermath of Hurricane Dorian, revenue performance was revised
downward by some $232 million for FY2019/20, but performed relatively buoyant despite
subdued economic activity in the affected islands. However, the associated impact of COVID-19
has further weakened activity, which has negatively impacted revenue receipts.
We are hopeful that the downward trends in new COVID-19 infections will permit the country to
reopen by July 1 st as foreshadowed by the Prime Minister. We recognize however, that even should
we meet this milestone, the ramp up of the tourism trade will likely be slow. While we remain
hopeful that we can fill our resorts, hotels, bonefish lodges and vacation rentals immediately upon
reopening, we are taking a more restrained view in our projections and modeling.
As such, we anticipate total revenue for FY2020/21 of some $1.7 billion, which represents a $328.1
million, or 15.7 percent decline over the projected outcome for FY2019/20.
I want to take this time to state, again, that the Government will not be increasing taxes or
introducing new taxes in this Budget. Despite the projected weak performance in revenue, we are
cognizant of the fact that this is not the right climate for increased taxation. It is our considered
view that any such move would significantly slow down the timeliness of an economic rebound.
Mr. Speaker,
On the expenditure front, outlays are anticipated to feature continued spend for hurricane
rebuilding efforts, coupled with new outlays for measures related specifically to COVID-19. As
noted earlier, these measures total nearly $136 million. Thus, we have reduced a number of
discretionary spending line items. This has meant that some 42 agencies and departments are
receiving reduced Budget allocations for the upcoming fiscal year. To reiterate what I mentioned
earlier, we were mindful not to cut spending in critical areas. Allocations to the Department of
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