2017 International Forest Industries Magazines October November 2017 | Page 6
ISSUE 59 OCTOMBER / NOVEMBER 2017
SUBSCRIPTIONS
Tel: +44 (0)1442 877 583
e [email protected]
Annual Subscription
UK and Europe £160, €230
Rest of the world US$270 EDITOR’S COMMENT
EDITORIAL
T: +44 (0)1442 877 583
F: +44 (0)1442 870 617
www.internationalforestindustries.com
2 Claridge Court, Lower Kings Road
Berkhamsted, Herts. HP4 2AF, UK The management skills of Xi Jinping have so far
proved a strong combination for wood demand
Editorial Director
John Chadwick
john@internationalforestindustr ies.com
Editor
Chris Cann
[email protected]
Editorial Board
Dr Patrick Moore – Chairman and Chief
Scientist of Greenspirit (Canada)
Darren Oldham – Managing Director
Söderhamn Eriksson (UK)
Professor Piotr Paschalis-Jakubowicz –
Warsaw Agricultural University (Poland)
Mr Kim Carstensen
Director General
Forest Stewardship Council
Eduardo Morales
South American Forestry Consultant
ADVERTISING AND PROMOTIONS
Lansdowne Media Services Ltd
Advertising Manager
Phil Playle
[email protected]
Group Advertising Manager
David Lansdowne
[email protected]
+44 (0)1442 87 77 77
Associate Editor
Robin Peach
[email protected]
Advertising Production Enquiries
Emma Smith
[email protected]
International Forest Industries is published
by International Forest Industries Ltd,
2 Claridge Court, Lower Kings Road
Berkhamsted, Herts. HP4 2AF, UK
International Forest Industries (ISSN 1755-6732) is
published bi-monthly by International Forest Industries
Ltd GBR and is distributed in the USA by Asendia USA,
17B South Middlesex Avenue, Monroe NJ 08831 and
additional mailing offices. Periodicals postage paid at
New Brunswick NJ. POSTMASTER: send address
changes to International Forest Industries, 17B South
Middlesex Avenue, Monroe NJ 08831
© International Forest Industries Ltd 2007 – 2014
IFI uses, as preference, SI units throughout.
All dollars are US unless otherwise stated.
China still a force for forestry
The 19th National Congress of the Communist
Party of China was held recently and the
dominant topics up for discussion were
far removed from what many economists
pessimistic about the state of the Chinese
economy might have imagined two or three
years ago.
Then, all the talk was of the inevitable slowing of
the Chinese juggernaut. GDP had almost halved
since it’s double-digit peak, the shadow banking
industry was apparently running unchecked, and
the debt being racked up by local government
had placed the country on the precipice of crisis.
This was all happening as the government was
meant to be tackling a challenge that had been
approaching for a decade – transitioning from
a developing world, export economy to a first
world, consumer economy.
But at some point, perhaps 18 months ago, talk
of the inevitable implosion of China’s economy
started to fade away. China was taking steps to
manage its debt but had continued to stimulate
its economy and move industry down the value
chain.
As the world’s media recently watched for
indications of Communist Party priorities, they
watched for the internal political positioning of
Xi Jinping as he tightened his grip on Chinese
politics; and for signs of how he might attempt
to manage the dual volatility presented by
Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un.
Conspicuously, there was little conjecture or
concern over the country’s economic fortunes.
Jinping and his colleagues’ ability to successfully
manage China through a period of intense peril
is a function of both fortune and skill.
While major debt issues and economic transition
on the scale seen in China are not solved
without a material degree of fiscal prowess,
executing rescue plans is made much easier
when the party and the party’s leader enjoy
absolute control over almost every aspect of the
country’s power structure.
This is precisely why India has not, and never
will, be ‘the next China’ as many in the forestry
sector have hoped when they considered the
4 International Forest Industries | OCTOBER / NOVEMBER 2017
void a slowing China might leave in the demand
for raw materials. India, with its corrupt,
disjointed and devolved democracy will never be
organised enough to grow like China has.
Jinping has also benefited from a timely return
to form for the economies of the United States
and the European Union, which have both
enjoyed an uptick in growth, which has taken
the pressure off China and also gifted the
forestry sector a long-awaited boon in demand.
The importance of China success for the entire
forestry world but directly for its regional
partners was seen in the most recent set of
numbers from the Wood Resource Quarterly,
which highlighted the effect the nation’s
continued growth was having on Australia.
“Australia has rapidly become a major exporter
of softwood logs and was the world’s sixth
largest log exporter in 2016,” the report stated.
“During the first half of 2017, the upward trend
continued with shipments being 17% higher
than in the first half of 2016.
“In 2012, Australia’s annual exports totalled
only 1.2 million m 3 . Just four years later, in
2016, exports had tripled to a record high of 3.6
million m 3 , of which 96% was destined for China.
“If the upward trend seen this far in the first six
months of 2017 continues, export volumes will
end up totalling over four million m 3 in 2017,
which represents approximately 25% of the total
softwood timber harvest in Australia.”
Australia is of course not the only beneficiary
of strong growth out of China but tracking
its fortunes provides a useful bellwether for
China’s impact on forestry in general. Provided
the political structure and ambitions remain
consistent, it is difficult to see a time when
China won’t be a key demand centre for our
industry, no matter what the doubters may say.
Enjoy
Chris Cann