2016: The Year in Review | Page 24

populations with it .
DOES THE DIVIDE DEMONSTRATED BY THE BREXIT VOTE VALIDATE SOME OF MARX ’ S PREDICTIONS FOR SOCIETY IN ANY RESPECT ? I think it would be very difficult to suggest that what we see with Brexit and the rise of populist nationalism necessarily indicates that Marx was right . I suppose that Marx would have predicted global capitalism to start being challenged by a socialist movement and would be overturned with international socialism - we are a very long way from that . I think we see a polarisation in our politics . I think we see a growing gap between rich and poor . I think we see a growing gap between people with a global liberal vision and those with a more nationalist vision . But , I don ' t think that this necessarily is something that can only be explained by a Marxist view , or that it heralds the end of capitalism . It means that many of the injustices of capitalism need to be rethought and there needs to be an adaptation . But I don ' t necessarily see the inevitability of a Marxist revolution . need to come up with a negotiating position , the EU will need to come up with a negotiating position and over a long period a deal will be struck . The challenge is that the Prime Minister has created a very difficult decision by suggesting that we will take a very hard Brexit option , saying ‘ Brexit will mean Brexit ’, saying that we won ’ t take an intermediary option like Norway or Switzerland ’ s relationship to the European Union , but we will be out . This means that the negotiations are going to be very difficult . It is why people like Jean-Claude Juncker , President of the European Commission , yesterday suggested that Britain will be punished for Brexit and it means that negotiating process is going to very long and very difficult - we won ’ t know what we ’ re going to end up with for a very long time .
WHAT DO YOU BELIEVE THE CONSEQUENCES OF NO DEAL FOR BREXIT MAY BE ? I think that what ’ s going to happen is that Article 50 will be triggered . The UK will

C H I N A MARTIN JACQUES

China is transforming the world . We have never seen anything like this before : a developing country of 1.3 billion people growing at around 10 % a year for over three decades . In 1980 its economy was a tenth of the size of America ’ s : today it is over half the latter ’ s size and likely to overtake it within the next

24 five years or so . China is now the largest trading nation in the world and a larger lender to the developing world than the World Bank . In a decade or so , the renminbi is likely to become a reserve currency and to begin to usurp the dollar ’ s position as the dominant reserve currency . By 2030 it is projected that the Chinese economy will be