word of the next five or ten years.
Before June 23rd, no country has
ever made the decision to leave the
European Union, and now a door,
which was always shut, has been
opened to the future. Historically, it is
known that Britain has a vast influence
on its European counterparts, and
when the country paves the way into a
new direction, others will be inclined
to follow. This is something that both
Angela Merkel and François Hollande
might be contemplating
apprehensively.
The prospects of leaving the
European Union have never been
more fathomable or attainable until
the second biggest economy in the
bloc bid it farewell. Almost like a
domino effect, there is speculation
surrounding the possibilities of an
Italeave, a Departugal, a Czechout, and
the withdrawal of many more
members, which would detrimentally
weaken the EU and reduce its power.
A door that was always secured shut
has now been plunged open.
However, Brexit cannot be blamed the
cause of the tensions between nations
and their wanting to leave, but it has
created a path for which they can act
upon their dissatisfactions, and
therefore the slow deterioration of
the European Union may have been
accelerated. The priority of keeping
the union of 27 together has now,
more than ever, been the consistent,
dominant message in Berlin since the
Brexit campaign and Merkel has
invested a great deal of energy in
shaping a unified European position
on the Brexit process. Berlin is also
currently concerned about France’s
future in the EU. A President Le Pen is
a grave, existential threat to the EU,
and the future balance of power in
Europe.
With a fractured EU, European
relations could regress to those of the
pre-EU era. Since the Union’s
formation in 1993, the Franco-German
alliance has been the driving force
behind its sustenance and survival, but
if this union is to gradually crumble,
we will see this partnership between
two of the continent’s strongest
countries begin to decay. Franco-
German bilateralism will be tested on
Eurozone governance. It is very easy to
forget the once long-lasting and deep-
rooted tension between these two
neighbours, which goes back to the
16th century, and was exacerbated in
the 1871 Franco-Prussian War. The
double-power engine that is the EU
consolidated Franco-German relations
and ostensibly removed the pre-
existing enmity by uniting them on
common ground: a United Europe.
After German re-unification in 1990,
those same tensions reemerged but
were subdued when the EU was
established shortly after. But remove
the EU from the equation and it is
evident that these tensions are not so
far off. Germany will fear France, and
France will fear Germany. It is those
same tensions that kicked off two of
the most destructive wars of the 20th
century. The resurrection of these
tensions are what cabinets in the
respective countries are fearing and
currently preparing for.
11