2016 ROI Fourth Quarter Edition with Q & A HIS Capital Group Edition | Page 12

THE ALL-POWERFUL AMERICAN CONSUMER
It’s been a rough recovery/expansion this time around. The following graphic is the growth in retail sales
by economic recovery. The label represents the year in which the economic recovery started. Perhaps
surprisingly, for expansions that have lasted this long, 2009 is by far the weakest, with spenders barely
exhibiting any exuberance in their spending behavior.
Our best guess is that growth accelerates in 2017, stemming from pending tax cuts, greater confidence
in the economic picture, likely infrastructure spending, and the revival of American business spending.
Year-over-year retail sales could surpass 5% in 2017 – a feat not reached since early 2012.

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HIS Capital Group