that some of our communities , frankly , have not been invested in , like our rural communities , aging corridor communities , ethnic communities .”

And across all communities , there ’ s more to the economy than just the number of jobs or the price of a house . To better understand this kind of nuance , earlier in 2021 , the Metro Chamber partnered with the UC Davis Graduate School of Management to identify which of Sacramento ’ s attributes mattered to employees . Blackwood was surprised to find “ safety ” as the biggest concern , driven by concerns of homelessness , crime and the rise of untreated mental health issues . “ When folks ’ spending decisions are made on , ‘ Do I feel safe walking around at night ? Do I feel safe walking to my office ?’ The answer is no . That retracts spending , and that retracts the economy . That ’ s very real .”

Even on the top end of the economic ladder — those seeking six-figure jobs — Varshney spots challenges for the region . “ We ’ re a very service-oriented economy ,”

he says . So while he imagines there will be plenty of minimum wage jobs available , he ’ s less optimistic for the upper income bracket . “ There are ( almost ) no jobs coming in that pay a higher wage ,” he says , and there ’ s little upward mobility outside of government and health care . This means that even if we see the overall labor market improve — he expects it will — ultimately , “ that does not help explain how the region will evolve over the next five or 10 years to become a more prosperous region .” In other words , a thriving economy needs both lower paying jobs and higher paying jobs . Varshney is concerned that Sacramento only has the former .

Does this mean Varshney is bearish on 2022 ? Not quite . He clarifies that “ 2022 will improve over 2021 ,” for the simple fact that in the aftermath of COVID-19 , “ our economy will reopen . It doesn ’ t matter how you slice it , you will still see economic growth and upward movement .” But he worries this obscures the underlying , long-term trends that were issues even pre-COVID-19 . That ’ s the general consensus : 2022 will be better , yes , but “ better ” is a relative term . Still , Ault remains optimistic . On a Friday night in November , he walked with his wife on K Street ( not far from Vine + Grain ) and he marveled at the busy crowds — people at a Sacramento Kings game , people out to see “ Hamilton ,” people queuing up at restaurants . “ It was only two years ago that we were really starting to turn the corner ,” Ault says . “ And I think there ’ s a lot of hope and optimism amongst the owners , the retailers and the businesses that we can get back there .”

Jeff Wilser is the author of seven books , most recently “ Becoming a Firefighter ,” from Simon & Schuster ’ s Masters at Work series . On Twitter @ jeffwilser .

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